Beryl targets Texas; wind, some coastal flooding and rain expected for SWLA

LAKE CHARLES, La. (KPLC) – As Beryl approaches Texas, the chance for some showers and thunderstorms increases Sunday. While rain isn’t expected everywhere, keep an eye on the skies. You can also track rain with the First Alert Weather app. One benefit of the rain and cloud cover is cooler temperatures, with highs expected between 30 and 35 degrees.

Now, on to Beryl. With Sunday’s 10 a.m. warning, the National Hurricane Center hasn’t changed the forecast track too much. The hurricane will likely make landfall near Matagorda, Texas, early Monday morning. Beryl will turn north and northeast again, but not until after it makes landfall.

On Sunday morning, hurricane hunters went out to study Beryl and found that it was a little better organized, with more thunderstorm activity near the center. Although Beryl was still a fairly extensive system, better organization and less hostile conditions are expected to allow Beryl to strengthen into a hurricane shortly before its landfall early Monday morning.

At this point, Beryl will likely stay on its current course and make landfall near Matagorda. If so, that means our impacts here in SWLA are expected to be fairly limited in most locations. However, windy conditions will result in higher than normal tides, rip currents, and some flooding along the Cameron coast. Water may rise as high as 3 feet, particularly during Monday’s high tide cycles.

Rain could also be a problem, but that ultimately depends on how quickly it moves inland over Texas and how it tracks. It’s worth noting that models are currently calling for the majority of the rain to actually fall directly west of Texas. If that’s the case, that would mean rain in SWLA remains far more manageable. But any shift farther east could bring a line of showers and storms to our area, which would greatly increase precipitation amounts Monday into Tuesday morning. A total of 1 to 4 inches of rain is currently expected for that time, with the higher amounts likely closer to the state line. And if there are indeed that many showers and storms, higher amounts could easily be possible.

Even though there isn’t as much rain, windy conditions are still expected on Monday. Sustained winds between 20 and 30 mph and gusts between 30 and 40 mph are expected, so you’ll want to collect or secure any loose items you don’t want blown away. And wind gusts on the coast could easily exceed 40 mph. And if there are more thunderstorms, gusts will be stronger locally, too.

Now let’s move on to a larger impact scenario: what if Beryl stays on the right side of the forecast cone? Currently, the spread of the train uncertainty is decreasing, and a landfall near Matagorda is likely. However, if Beryl makes landfall a little farther east, or intensifies more quickly, the impacts on SWLA could increase a bit. This would mean a greater chance for heavier rainfall and slightly stronger winds. And while the probability is low, an isolated tornado in thunderstorms can’t be completely ruled out even with the current forecast since we’re on the right side of Beryl, so keep the First Alert Weather app handy, which will provide you with weather alerts. However, if Beryl makes landfall farther west, the chances of these things happening decrease.

Now let’s put it all in plain English! Simply put, the official forecast has moved a little closer to SWLA, but the direct impact remains limited based on the current forecast. BUT, we need to at least be aware of any kind of eastward swings that could affect the landfall location and trajectory. Given the trends so far over the last day, scenarios with major impacts to SWLA seem less likely than they did a few days ago. However, we will continue to monitor the situation closely and will know more by Sunday morning.

Finally, I want to share a computer model image from the model I use daily on TV (GRAF model). On Friday afternoon, it showed a landfall near Galveston on Monday, and that’s what’s pictured here. BUT since that update, the model has shifted a bit closer toward Matagorda Bay, and is certainly better than a shift further east toward SWLA! And even better, the model has reduced Beryl’s intensity at landfall. This model has done very well for Laura and other major hurricanes in recent years. But remember, NO model is perfect, and they all have errors and biases, so it’s better to focus on the consensus of all models rather than a single model. And at this point, time is running out for any major eastward shifts, but if there are any, we’ll let you know quickly!

So what should we do here in SWLA? At this point, I would say just keep watching our weather forecast for updates, and I will continue to post here regularly. You know what you would do IF the track moves closer to our area. If you live in Cameron Parish closer to the Gulf, I would prepare for windy conditions and the likelihood of some coastal flooding. This goes for everyone, but as always, it’s a good idea when hurricane season starts to review your plans and make sure you have adequate supplies in case you need them. This is especially true for medications or other necessities. This is a good rehearsal for hurricane season, and let’s hope it’s no more than that this time. And of course, there is NO need to panic AT ALL, because that will do no good.

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