Atlanta win shows Chennedy Carter can be a prolific closer for the Sky

Chennedy Carter may be the most prolific for the Chicago Sky in the 2024 season.

The team has spent a lot of time in games that are considered decisive this season. A “decisive” is defined as a game that goes down to the final five minutes, with a goal margin of less than five points.

With that in mind, the Sky have the closest margin to neutral of any team in the league, with a +/- of -1.4, meaning a good majority of their games have been played in a tight window.

The Sky have compiled the second-most decisive games this season, with 13, but are 4-9 in those games – a 30.8 winning percentage that ranks second to last in the W.

This speaks to the bouts of inconsistency they’ve shown at inopportune times, as well as their general lack of execution when engaged in close games.

However, most of these mistakes come from their lack of identity in these moments. Rather than knowing who they wanted to address, how they wanted to reach the player in question and the advantages they wanted to create in this action, they seemed to guess what they should do, when and how.

A very intriguing and potentially game-changing development took place in Tuesday’s away win over Atlanta.

Carter, who has spent the last six games in the starting lineup, scored 11 of his team’s 19 points in the fourth quarter.

The game was tied at 72 both ways entering the final five minutes, setting up another deciding scenario for the Sky, and remaining tied entering the final three minutes of the game, Carter would account for nine of the team’s final 13 points, to seal the eventual eight-point victory.

They needed someone to take the reins of the game in those waning moments, and, as with many of the challenges the team has faced this season, Carter stepped up to the plate, displaying an elite level of time on task.

Carter is now in the top 10 in total points scored in decisive moments this season.

Of the 11 players who have accumulated at least 22 points in decisive moments this season, Carter has played the fewest minutes in this game context (26 minutes) and has made the third-fewest shots (12 field goal attempts).

That being said, the fact that she’s tied for second in field goals made (10), has the second-highest field goal percentage (83.3) and has the fewest turnovers of this group (1) should be all the more intriguing.

She’s also third in +/- in those scenarios for players averaging as many points in clutch scenarios as she does (2.8) at +2.0.

I talked about the growths that developed with her until June, these have increased tenfold since she is now a starter.

Let’s dive into the film to add some visual context to what’s being said, stemming from their win on Tuesday in Atlanta.

First, we’ll see her patience, which I’ve talked about a lot because she’s not only strong at reading a defense for herself, but for others as well.

Notice as she comes off Reese’s screen, she assesses the help in the paint, commits it, then dribbles it extra to keep their attention, before kicking it to DeShields who puts up a three to tie the game.

Carter being able to initiate the attack as the ever-present threat in the paint that she represents with her big drives, is Perfect at the helm for them in the clutch.

This threat, as well as selflessness and the ability not only to read but to counter by transmitting what it is processing, are of paramount importance.

This is where it gets fun.

I’ve talked ad nauseam this season about the need for the Sky to feature fast hitters more frequently to allow Carter to get dynamic (on the move) and downhill hits.

Typically, in their guard-guard actions, she receives the ball rather than initiating the play.

So now, since she takes the initiative, they are looking to get a reaction at the point of meshing of the defense, to then play.

DeShields jumps in, then “ghosts” the screen on the ball (by faking the screen and then moving as they trade space).

DeShields’ match, Coffey, is now in conflict as she wants to help on the ball, but also can’t stay too long as they aren’t switching at the moment.

I had highlighted Carter’s patience in the last piece, here we find it again as soon as Coffey releases the momentary double, Carter is immediately descending into the floater.

I also want to commend Cardoso’s re-spacing from the strong block, as any return from Charles allows Carter to force his way into a pocket for the finish.

The beauty of Carter on the ball is that while screens and passes that allow her dynamic touches have great value, she is also a player who need a screen or a pass to get down, and can do so with minimal dribbling, if not more.

This allows the Sky to go 1-4 flat here by allowing Carter to have space without defenders charging into the spaces, and watch the creativity in the changes of pace, all the way to the finish.

Also note the subtle restacking of the Gray after the blow-by, to retain leverage and eliminate the rear sight contest, and then the extended arm finish.

The major factor with Carter is that for all of Chennedy’s prolificness on offense, she’s certainly no slouch on defense.

This season, the Sky are 1.73 points better per 100 possessions when she’s on the court than when she’s off.

It’s his tenacity in navigating the screen and his ability to pressure the ball in space, whilst still being able to slide and contain to prevent his assist from being committed – keeping their defensive carapace intact.

That’s exactly what we see here as she pressures, contains, then pulls Gray away with her strong hand, before releasing the ball and getting another possession for the Sky.

Finally, like the nail in the coffin after his defensive stop, we now see the screen set by DeShields, inducing the change.

Coffey fails to stop Carter from turning the corner, and we see Carter’s elusiveness on the ball on display now, as she snakes towards the middle when Charles steps forward to protect the edge, then veers straight into a pull pocket.

Film show

With Carter being an elite player in terms of driving, the Sky can dictate the way opponents behave from the beginning of possessions. This constant presence forces the defense to be accountable in a different way.

It’s not just the drives, but also the ability to score through efficiency from the paint as a guard (eighth in the league in points in the paint with 10.1 – the most among guards), as well as the ability to transition into said actions as shown earlier, hits differently.

Put that in tandem with the fact that the Sky are also 15.9 points per 100 possessions better when she’s on the court offensively (a 105.8 mark – equivalent to third in the W – and you see even more value in having the ball in her hands, how she helps organize their half-court play and can be used much more late in games.

She also has pick-and-roll chemistry with their frontcourt pieces, which is also highly valued for late-game play.

All of these dynamics at play lead to Carter being the player with the ball in his hands in those decisive scenarios, to score or set the table for others, helping to organize and give the Sky an identity to rely on in those scenarios.

Carter’s shooting profile and ability to play inside-out as a guard put her in the perfect position to be the Sky’s master stringer, capable of converting from the basket, mid-range and via self-created play-action.

Some Funny Statistics About Chennedy Carter That Will Make You Laugh At His Prolificacy

Since he started (6.16 – 6 matches):

• 1st in counter-attack points (4.2/match)
• T-3 in points in the paint (12.0/game)
• T-8 in PPG (20.2/game)

Please take a look at the preserved company…

*Elite* pic.twitter.com/C3BAiClNBn

— Stephen PridGeon ☯️🏁 (@StayTrueSDot3) July 5, 2024

As is the theme of this season in many ways for the Sky, Chennedy’s embrace of the Sky is in direct alignment with the Sky’s embrace of her – completely.

Having an identified closer will speed up their execution process in these scenarios and allow them to unlock new dynamics for upcoming opportunities in closing games.