Odds, predictions and forecasts for the Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves match

THE Atlanta Braves (47-38) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (57-30) at Truist Park on Friday to open a 3-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET (Apple TV). Let’s analyze the lines from FanDuel Sportsbook around Phillies vs Braves Odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season Series: Braves lead 2-1

The Phillies lost to the Chicago Cubs 10-2 on Thursday, finishing with a -119 away record. They have won 2 of 3 games in this series and are 5-4 in their last 9 games. The Phillies are 24-16 away from home. Philadelphia, which is 47-40 ATS on the season, is 2-2 ATS in their last 4 games.

The Braves are also coming off a loss, falling 4-2 in their last three-game series to the San Francisco Giants on Thursday. Atlanta has lost three of its last four games and five of its last eight. It remains among the best home teams in the major leagues with a 27-16 record. The Braves are 39-46 ATS this season.

The Phillies beat the Braves 3-1 in last year’s NLDS.

Starters scheduled for Phillies vs. Braves game

RHP Aaron Nola against LHP Max Fried

Nola (9-4, 3.43 ERA) is making his 18th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 107 2/3 innings.

• Last Start: Lost, 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 9 K in a 3-2 home loss to the Miami Marlins on Saturday
• 2024 Away Divisions: 5-1, 3.18 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 4 HR, 7.5 K/9 in 7 starts
• 2024 vs. Braves: 0-1, 12.46 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 11 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 start, 12-4 home loss on March 30
• Career vs. Braves (regular season): 15-11, 3.58 ERA (211 IP, 84 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 34 starts

Fried (7-3, 2.91 ERA) is making his 17th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 96 innings.

• Last Start: No decision, 6 innings, 1 earned run, 6 hits, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts in a 2-1 10-inning home win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday
• 2024 Home Record: 2-1, 2.92 ERA (37 IP, 12 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 1 HR, 7.1 K/9 in 6 starts
• 2024 vs. Phillies: 0-0, 40.50 ERA (2/3 IP, 3 ER), 2 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 1 start, 12-4 road win on March 30
• Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 4-4, 3.92 ERA (80 1/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 14 starts and 6 relief appearances

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Phillies vs Braves Odds

Powered by FanDuel Sportsbook; go to USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:42 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
• Running Line (RL)/Against the Spread: Phillies +1.5 (-188) | Braves -1.5 (+155)
• More/Less (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Phillies vs Braves Game Picks and Predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 2

Money line

BET ON THE BRAVES (-142).

The Braves have been virtually unbeatable at home with Fried on the mound. They are 5-1 in his home starts. Atlanta is 27-16 as a home favorite this season. Despite a recent slump, the team has won three straight starts under Fried and has allowed just one run in each of those games.

The Phillies are 4-3 in their last 7 games, but 2 of those losses came at home to the Miami Marlins (worst team in the NL East), including one with Nola starting. Both teams have good options on the mound, but the Braves are the better team here.

Back BRAVES (-142).

Racing Line/Against the Spread

PASS.

The Phillies are too expensive as run-line underdogs here, while the Braves are too risky as run-line favorites, especially with this game shaping up to be a low-scoring contest.

Avoid the racing line here.

More less

BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).

The pitching will be very good and the trends also support the Under. The Braves have gone Under in Fried’s last 4 starts and are 0-7-1 O/U in their last 8 games. They are 30-51-4 O/U on the season.

The Phillies are 1-2 O/U in Nola’s last 3 starts and 39-43-5 O/U this season. They’ve also scored 2 or fewer goals in 3 of their last 7 games. Against an ace like Fried, expect them to struggle.

Back LESS THAN 7.5 (-105).

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