Fierce fighting erupts in Myanmar’s civil war as militias launch new attacks on the regime

BANGKOK: New fighting has broken out in northeast Myanmar, ending a China-brokered ceasefire and putting pressure on the military regime, which is facing attacks from resistance forces on several fronts in the country’s civil war.

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army, one of three powerful militias that launched a surprise joint offensive last October, renewed its attacks last week on regime positions in northeastern Shan state, which borders China, Laos and Thailand, and in the neighboring Mandalay region, with the support of local forces there.

Since then, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance army has joined the conflict, and by Friday the combined forces of the two allied militias had reportedly surrounded the strategic town of Lashio, home to the headquarters of the regime’s northeastern military command.

This is the next phase of the “1027” offensive in October, said Lway Yay Oo, spokesman for the TNLA, which said last week that the military had provoked retaliation with artillery and air strikes despite the ceasefire.

“In phase two, our primary goal is to eliminate the military dictatorship, and the second is the protection and security of the local population,” she said.

Thet Swe, a spokesman for the military regime that took power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, accused the militias of endangering civilians by resuming fighting.

“While the TNLA begins to violate the ceasefire, the Tatmadaw is protecting the lives and property of the ethnic population,” he said in an email to AP, referring to the army by its Burmese name.

There was no indication that the third ethnic armed organization that makes up the Three Brothers Alliance, the powerful Arakan Army, had joined the renewed fighting in Shan State. However, its troops have never stopped fighting in their home state of Rakhine, which was not covered by the January 11 ceasefire.

The TNLA claims to have already captured more than 30 army bases and now controls the western part of Mogok, whose ruby ​​mines make it a lucrative target. Fighting is also taking place over the town of Kyaukme, which lies at a highway junction, and Nawnghkio in the southwest, which is on the same highway leading to the large military garrison town of Pyin Oo Lwin.

“You have to stop the conflict there to prevent the military from sending reinforcements,” says Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst at the International Institute of Strategic Studies who leads the Myanmar Conflict Map project.

In Mandalay, the region west of Shan, a local People’s Defense Force – one of numerous armed resistance groups that emerged in support of the underground Government of National Unity, which considers itself the legitimate government of Myanmar – joined the TNLA offensive.

Osmond, a spokesman for the Mandalay People’s Defense Force who declined to give his nom de guerre for security reasons, said he and other local resistance groups had captured nearly 20 military posts.

The Three Brothers Alliance offensive made rapid progress in October, with militias capturing large areas in the north and northeast, including several key border crossings with China and several major military bases.

The alliance’s militias have close ties to China, and many believe the offensive has had Beijing’s tacit approval because of the country’s growing dissatisfaction with the military regime’s apparent indifference to the growing drug trade along the border and the growing number of centers in Myanmar running cyber fraud and recruiting workers from China and other parts of the region.

In January, China helped broker a ceasefire that ended heavy fighting in the northeast, while other ethnic armed organizations and PDF groups in other parts of the country also launched attacks on regime positions.

In light of the renewed violence in northeast China, the Chinese Foreign Ministry told the AP it was ready to provide renewed support for peace talks, but declined to say whether it had been in direct contact with the Three Brothers Alliance or the military State Administration Council.

“China calls on all parties in Myanmar to conscientiously abide by the ceasefire agreement, exercise maximum restraint, disengage on the ground as soon as possible, and take practical and effective measures to ensure the calm of the China-Myanmar border and the safety of Chinese personnel and projects,” the ministry said in a faxed response to questions.

The Myanmar army does not appear to have been surprised by the TNLA attacks. There is evidence that it mobilized troops and prepared defenses, security checkpoints and patrols in advance of the renewed offensive, Michaels said.

“They were not completely surprised. Although they could not yet react, there was no counter-offensive,” he said.

The TNLA’s goals are still unclear, but it may be that the group is simply seeking to increase its troop presence and consolidate its positions while the armed forces are stretched by fighting on several fronts and before new groups of conscripts are trained for service.

The army’s ranks have already been expanded by 5,000 conscripts and another 10,000 are expected by the end of the year. Thet Swe said they would not be sent into combat but would be used as guards and for other duties, freeing up better-trained soldiers for the front.

“If the draft continues and the military can stop these offensives and hold out until the end of the year, there could be a counteroffensive next year,” Michaels said. “So this is the last window of opportunity to pull this off.”

The MNDAA is also unclear whether it intends to take part in the broader offensive or whether it intends to take the surrounded Lashio by force, lay siege to it or simply hold the troops trapped there. The group did not respond to requests for comment.

“If you compare it to the first time in 1027, the collapse of the military is not as rapid,” Michaels said.

“The military is still suffering losses, but not at the same scale or pace. However, if the MNDAA fully joins in, the situation will change.”