Houston’s roster looks ready, but is the play-in a moving target?

Donovan Mitchell’s extension with the Cleveland Cavaliers allows Houston to secure a roster spot. But without a major trade, can Houston make the play-in tournament? Of course, thinking the Rockets could land Mitchell was an unlikely prospect anyway. Many Houston fans would have regretted the necessary trade of Jalen Green. He may be the first of Houston’s young prospects whose growth is now the determining factor in the team’s success.

Houston’s roster looks ready, but is the play-in a moving target?

The team will return next season hoping to have improved enough to use its previous 11th-place finish as a mere springboard to greater success. Even their rookie selection in this year’s draft was apparently calibrated with that in mind. They selected Kentucky bomber Reed Sheppard to arm the bench lineup with more destructive long-range firepower. In essence, to complement existing players. It’s a good idea in principle—some of Houston’s prospects are bound to improve. But there’s a problem: The ever-increasing ferocity of the Western Conference absolutely refuses to let up.

Houston’s Final Play-In Race

Houston narrowly missed out on a play-in spot last season. The team found itself in a frantic final-act chase with its old rivals, Stephen Curry’s Golden State Warriors. The streak ended ignominiously when Houston caught up for the big showdown and was summarily eliminated by the movie’s ostensible protagonist. But it’s hard not to view a team that heavily features Draymond Green as an antihero figure.

The good news for Houston is that the Warriors probably Things have gotten worse this offseason. It’s far from guaranteed, but the loss of Klay Thompson, the Splash Brother, is going to hit the organization hard. It’s perhaps more from a fan perspective at this point, as one could argue that the Splash Brother inside Thompson may have died in the 2019 Finals. Still, his spirit has undoubtedly made several reappearances during the team’s run to the championship in 2022. However, his 0-for-10 performance in Golden State’s only play-in game in 2024 might convince some that recent acquisition De’Anthony Melton will actually be an improvement.

The defense will likely be better, but despite Thompson’s inconsistency (and he’s always been an inconsistent shooter), defenses won’t fear Melton the same way. Even potential rookie and proven shooter Buddy Hield doesn’t quite look like him. That means more attention on Curry, something the Warriors potentially can’t afford. Curry is an all-time great who, surprisingly, remains in his prime, but the Warriors are feeling the strain of the second apron squeezing them in the midsection.

Barring bigger trades (like the Utah Jazz All-Star Lauri Markkanen trade), Golden State appears to be in danger of being eliminated. However, given their recent shared history with Houston, Rockets fans shouldn’t have much faith in that. Still, the real threats to Houston’s play-in hopes lie with the teams that last season’s team beat. Two in particular: the Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs.

Grizzly bear in hibernation

The Memphis Grizzlies spent last season as a sort of sleeping giant/hibernating grizzly bear. This was almost entirely due to the absence of superstar Ja Morant. Before his suspension and injury, the Grizzlies were competing for the lone spot in the 2022-23 season. Obviously, the roster has undergone changes since then, and indeed, the contours of the Western Conference have changed drastically. Still, between Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane, the Grizzlies have an imposing young core. They will even have a sleeping giant next season in the form of new draft pick Zach Edey. The team will undoubtedly impact the play-in race one way or another. They will either compete for a spot themselves or push someone else out of the top six and into contention instead. Regardless, a healthy and not entirely dysfunctional Grizzlies team makes Houston’s play-in hunt strictly more difficult.

The alien

And then there are the Spurs. Few players are considered Hall of Fame candidates after their rookie season. But that’s the kind of assessment that’s been made of last year’s first-round pick, Victor Wembanyama. His Hall of Fame chances would be greatly increased if the oddsmakers were right about him winning his first Defensive Player of the Year award in his second year. Given voters’ reluctance to make Rudy Gobert the first five-time winner and the slightly questionable cases of some other recent selections, Wembanyama certainly has a good chance. And that’s without even mentioning that he may truly be the most impactful defensive player in the entire association. But given that Anthony Davis has never won the award, maybe that doesn’t even matter.

But even if Wembanyama is assumed to be the frontrunner for DPOY next season, the Spurs’ biggest upgrade could come on the offensive end. The team’s point guard position will no longer be entirely reserved for Jeremy Sochan’s experimentation. For one, the team selected promising point guard Stephon Castle with the fourth overall pick, quite possibly the player with the most superstar potential in the lottery. But that’s not all. They also drafted one of the best players in history at the position in Chris Paul.

Paul is clearly not what he once was. But even past his prime, his ability to immediately improve young teams has been impressive. He did it with the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2020 and, most notably, with the Phoenix Suns in 2021. There’s good reason to believe he’ll be able to do something similar with the Spurs in 2024-25. And that’s before you consider the devilish, otherworldly magic Wembanyama could add to his own offensive game. The Spurs are a wild card in a Western Conference that’s going to see a lot of midseason shakeup. To make the play-in, Houston has to come out on top. Frankly, it seems that way. But then again, a talented magician of his generation should find a way to defy expectations.

The last word

Ultimately, the Houston Rockets are a young team that doesn’t have all its eggs in its basket this season. Fans are understandably eager to get their first taste of the postseason since franchise icon James Harden left. And there’s every chance this young Houston team can do just that. But sticking with these young players won’t automatically leave management with egg on its face if it doesn’t. With Houston having so far held off on extensions for Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun, the team will have plenty of options for an overhaul next year. That would likely include a consolidation trade of some sort. In the meantime, fans should enjoy watching the team’s young talent continue to flourish. And management can focus on whether the bunch will need a new centerpiece moving forward.