Impact in the Big 12

There is no choice but to fight for the Houston Cougars in 2024

Houston is still looking to make an impact in the Big 12. That didn’t happen last season, when the Cougars won just two conference games. The Cougars were 6-6 ATS (4-3 after a loss).

Houston has covered five of its nine college football games as an underdog. Houston has only won three of its nine games while ranked as an underdog, so that’s something to keep in mind when it comes to the Houston Cougars’ stats in 2024.

A season ago, only five of Houston’s twelve games finished under the total, while six of the nine games where Houston was the underdog finished under the total.

Houston ranks 13th in the Big 12 in total offense and 13th in total defense among Big 12 teams in 2023. With 14 teams in the Big 12 a season ago, that’s a problem when there are only 14 teams in a conference. Don’t expect to see Houston among the Big 12 teams appearing in the college football rankings.

A Look at the Houston Cougars

Will the newcomers make the difference in defense?

Houston lost a few key college football players via transfer with defensive tackle Jamaree Caldwell (6.5 sacks in 2023) going to Oregon, wide receiver Sam Brown going to Miami, receiver Matthew Golden (team-high six touchdowns) going to Texas and offensive lineman Tyler Johnson going to Colorado.

The Cougars added 27 new transfers. Tulane linebacker Corey Platt, Louisiana linebacker Kendre Gant, Michigan State tight end Maliq Carr. Thirteen of the top 20 incoming transfers are on defense, so maybe that will pay off this season. Will they make a difference when it comes to the Houston Cougars’ stats in 2024?

The good news is there are seven Texas natives on the preseason All Big 12 team, but the bad news is none of them will play for Houston.

• Championship Odds: There’s Always a Basketball Season

The Houston basketball team deserves a mention in national championship discussions. The football team, not so much when it comes to CFP championship game odds.

Houston has lost its last 12 games against ranked opponents, with the last win coming against a top-25 team in 2017 against South Florida. Ten of those losses have been by double digits, so the Cougars still have some work to do to be in position to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff field.

Houston will face Oklahoma in Week 2 and the Cougars will get a look at what a program that has been in national title contention in recent years looks like.

Houston has won its last two college games and it would be a successful season to return to a college game this year.

• Conference Odds: Cougars Looking to Avoid the Cellar

Houston is tied with BYU for the longest odds to win the Big 12 and in the Big 12 preseason media poll, the Cougars were ahead of only Arizona State.

Five Big 12 teams received votes in the preseason poll and the Cougars face four of them in a brutal stretch from Oct. 19-Nov. 15 that features road games against Kansas and Arizona as well as home dates with preseason favorite Utah and a Kansas State that received just one fewer first-place vote than Utah.

Houston ends the season with games against Baylor and BYU. If there is still something to play for, maybe the Cougars can win at least one of those games. When projecting the Houston Cougars’ stats in 2024, A six-win season would be a step in the right direction.

• Regular season wins: Reaching five wins could be a tough task

Assuming the Cougars are tamed against Oklahoma, that emphasizes that Houston must beat UNLV and Rice in non-conference play to have a chance of surpassing 4.5 wins during the regular season.

The Cougars are just three-point favorites in the NCAAF odds against visiting UNLV in the season opener, so it’s not a given that they head into conference play with a 2-1 record. Houston has quarterback Donovan Smith back, but new receivers will need to emerge.

Most important throws last season for P4 QBs in the 2025 NFL Draft:

Garrett Greene, West Virginia 31
Preston Stone, SMU 30
Jalen Milroe, Alabama 27
Tyler Van Dyke, Wisconsin 24
Cam Ward, Miami 24
Brady Cook, Missouri 23
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado 23
Donovan Smith, Houston 22

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) June 30, 2024

Houston has won four games in 2023, but the only team the Cougars beat last season that is on this year’s schedule is Baylor.

• To participate in the playoffs: reaching a bowl game is a more realistic goal

The good news is that the Big 12 champion is likely to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff now that they have expanded to 12 teams and the champion team of the five highest-ranked conferences receives field spots.

However, the Big 12 is lagging behind the SEC, Big Ten and ACC, so there could be only one Big 12 team in the CFP. Asking Houston to go from three conference wins in 2023 to winning the Big 12 in the span of a year might be a bit ambitious.

Paris annexes

It takes a while to find Donovan Smith’s name among the Heisman Trophy prospects, so perhaps the best bet to start the NCAAF season is for Houston to start as a 3-point favorite against UNLV in the season opener on Aug. 31.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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