CHINA China’s green economy and its unknowns for the Russians

Russia exported 24% more oil to China in 2023 than in the previous year. And the Sila-Sibiri pipeline is also running at full capacity. But Beijing’s push into renewable energy production and the electric car market shows that its goals differ from those of Moscow. And that the current boom – which is vital for Russian finances – cannot last long.

Moscow (AsiaNews) – Russia has reversed the export of raw fuels from the West to the East, but the main buyer, China, is moving rapidly towards clean energy sources, with a great prospect of Green Changes in the coming decades. And that certainly does not help the Kremlin’s plans. Beijing is currently the main lifeline of the Russian economy, buying up ever-increasing quantities of oil, coal and gas, albeit at lower prices. At the same time, however, China is becoming one of the world leaders in green energy and electric transport, subjecting Europe itself to its dominance in this sector.

At this very moment, when Xi Jinping and Putin are attending the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the international security forum founded jointly by Beijing and Moscow in 2001 and now comprising the countries of Central Asia, India, Pakistan and Iran, in Astana, on Holy PlacesSpeaking in Important Stories, Russian renewable energy expert Tatiana Lanšina noted that China, previously the world leader in greenhouse gas emissions and responsible for a quarter of global pollution, has now placed clean energy at the top of its economic priorities. Carbon Brief It is estimated that the sector’s contribution to the Chinese economy will reach a record 11.4 trillion yuan (600,000 billion) by 2023, guaranteeing major investment growth of up to 40 percent of GDP – more than any other economic sector.

These estimates include various types of energy, renewables and nuclear energy, power grids and accumulators, electric cars and railways. The largest investments in 2023 will be in solar panels, electric cars and accumulators. Globally, China has 43% of the potential of solar energy and wind turbines, and together the capacity of these renewables exceeds one terawatt; for comparison, Russia’s output is 0.5% of China’s, and in total the output of the entire Russian energy system does not even reach a quarter of China’s solar and wind energy.

By taking advantage of its low labor costs and its huge domestic market, as well as the speed with which these projects can be realized, China is increasingly positioning itself as a pioneer in the implementation of the Paris climate agreements. At the same time, however, Beijing is also increasingly using “dirty” coal sources. According to official figures, 95 percent of the world’s new plants will be built in this sector in 2023, with 53 percent using fossil fuels, a share that will increase in the coming years. Chinese companies are therefore trying to make the most of the opportunities offered by this sector until the Green The change will be radical by 2030.

In this panorama, gas is used by the Chinese for only 3% of energy production, more for industrial complexes. China remains the world’s largest coal producer, and switching to gas is not cost-effective, nor is the use of oil, which even at the global level is not used for energy but mainly for transport. And even at this level, the Chinese economy is becoming “greener” and is switching to electric vehicles at an impressive rate: already in 2023, more than 25% of new cars were electric, compared to 6% in 2020.

Russia exported 107 million tons of crude oil to China in 2023, 24% more than the previous year, and also increased its gas exports by 1.5 times, namely 8 million tons of liquefied gas. It has become China’s largest customer for these materials, overtaking even Saudi Arabia and Turkmenistan. However, supplies are increasing in line with the transportation capacities of the Sila Sibiri Gas pipeline “Force of Siberia”, which is already at full capacity, and there is no way to convince the Chinese to stop the construction of the Sila Sibiri-2 (Putin suffered another setback during his recent visit to Beijing.) The enormous growth in trade over the past few years is therefore in danger of coming to a halt, and China’s objectives in this sector are much more geared to its own interests than those of the Russians, which will have a far greater impact in the long term than any Western sanctions.