2024 Fantasy Football Preview: Houston Texans

The first season of the DeMeco Ryans era in Houston was a huge success. After going 11-38 over the last three years, the Texans won the AFC South in 2023 with a final record of 10-7. Houston crushed the Cleveland Browns in the first round of the playoffs, but lost to the Baltimore Ravens in the second round. Still, it was a massive turnaround for the Texans and a season they should be able to build on in 2024.

Houston’s expectations for 2024 are high. At DraftKings Sportsbook, they have the best odds (+105) to win the AFC South. Quarterback CJ Stroud is entering his second season as the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’ll get some extra help in 2024 after the Texans made a trade for former Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs. The moves didn’t stop there. Let’s take a look at what else Houston did this offseason and predict how they might fare in 2024 fantasy football leagues.

CJ Stroud

At least for now, Stroud has been a gift to the Texans with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He played in 15 games last year and finished his rookie campaign with 4,108 yards passing, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. While not a true dual-threat quarterback, Stroud added 167 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.

Historically, quarterbacks aren’t viable in fantasy during their rookie season while they adjust to the NFL. Stroud didn’t get that memo and finished as the No. 11 overall QB. Heading into his second season, he has more weapons around him and another offseason to work out his offense. That’s led to his ADP skyrocketing to QB5 for 2024. Only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson are drafted ahead of him. It feels like he’s doomed to fail with such high expectations, but it’s not crazy to think he makes the traditional second-year jump. It may be a slight jump to QB5, but Stroud probably shouldn’t fall below QB7 in drafts.

Joe Mixon

Mixon signed a three-year deal with the Texans as a free agent. Last year, Houston’s backfield was led by Devin Singletary, who carried the ball 216 times for 898 yards and four touchdowns. Rookie Dameon Pierce struggled in his sophomore season and didn’t have the same consistency he had in 2022. He finished with 416 yards and two touchdowns. Mixon should be the focal point of this rushing attack, much like he was with the Cincinnati Bengals.

Houston’s new running back played in all 17 games last season. He rushed for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns, adding another 376 yards and three touchdowns on 52 receptions. The Texans have been building their offensive line, so Mixon’s fantasy value should be linear rather than downgraded. He was the RB5 overall in points scored in the semi-PPR last season, but he’s being selected as the RB16 overall this season. That seems low, and he could be a steal at the draft position.

Stefon Diggs

Diggs was the most traded name this offseason. His frustration with Buffalo’s playoff shortcomings was evident, but the expectation was that management would be forced to bring in another receiver to complement Diggs, not trade him. Now, the receiver role shifts from Josh Allen at quarterback to Stroud, but in a more crowded receiver room.

Diggs won’t be the best receiver he once was, but he doesn’t need to be to be fantasy value in 2024. He’s had six straight seasons with at least 1,021 yards and six touchdowns. Nico Collins led Houston receivers with 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns in 2023. Diggs likely won’t recreate those numbers alongside Collins, and he’s drafted as the WR20. Houston’s offense should be able to support all of its pieces in fantasy football, but Diggs sees a downgrade from what we’re used to for him with his new team. That’s not a cause for concern but a reminder to adjust your thinking for Diggs as the 30-year-old wears a new uniform this fall.

Nico Collins

Fantasy managers were waiting for Collins’ breakthrough season, which finally came in 2023. He developed an early rapport with Stroud, which resulted in 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns. Those numbers nearly tripled his output from his first two seasons in the league. Collins finished last year as the overall WR9 in fantasy football behind Keenan Allen and above his new teammate, Stefon Diggs.

Collins should regress, but not return to the 400 yards and touchdowns he was accustomed to in his first two seasons. Diggs will eat up his share of targets, as will Mixon, other receivers, and the team’s tight ends. Still, Collins should be a great complement to Diggs, and he already has a good rapport with Stroud. He’s being drafted as the WR13 overall, which seems a bit high with Diggs added to the offense, so make sure you don’t over-recruit him.

Dell Tank

Dell was the Texans’ second-leading receiver last year. Despite playing in just 11 games, he finished with 709 yards and seven touchdowns. Dell suffered a season-ending leg fracture but is expected to be ready for 2024. It’s unclear how he’ll factor into Houston’s passing attack. Right now, the assumption is that Diggs will be the No. 1 receiver, with Collins at No. 2 and Dell at No. 3. Dell is being selected as the WR31 in half-PPR scoring. That seems like a good range for him, which is a bad outcome considering how good he is as a rookie. Had Diggs not been traded, Dell would have more upside for 2024, but he should still be a solid role player.

Dalton Schultz

Schultz joined Houston on a one-year deal in 2023, and he was lucky he did. He was a reliable weapon for Stroud, hauling in 59 of his 88 targets for 635 yards and five touchdowns. Schultz finished as the TE11 overall, which is higher than his TE14 from a year ago. This year, however, the Texans tight end isn’t valued as highly, likely due to Diggs’ presence costing him some targets. He’s being taken as the TE14 this season, but it would be a blow to Collins or Diggs to take him away from a likely top-10 tight end.

Ka’imi Fairbairn

Houston’s kicker had a solid season despite missing five games. Fairbairn made 27 of 28 field goal attempts and kicked 22 extra points, except one. His longest kick of the year was 54 yards, and his only miss was from over 50 yards. He’s being drafted as the K5, and with the high-yield offense Houston is projected to have, he’s expected to be worth the selection.

D/ST

While most fantasy managers don’t care about the defense or special teams they’ll field, the Texans are worth a look. Despite a defensive-focused head coach last year, Houston’s D/ST finished as the 15th-best unit in fantasy football. Things are looking good for 2024, as along with Diggs, the Texans have added Danielle Hunter, Denico Autry, and Azeez Al-Shaair, among others, to the defensive side of the ball. They’re drafted as the D/ST10 this season and are worthy of a roster spot.