What impact will Israel’s attack on Rafah have on the Lebanese front?

On Monday, May 6, Israeli tanks entered the southern Gaza town of Rafah and took control of the Palestinian side of the border crossing with Egypt. Rafah, the only city in the Gaza Strip not yet invaded by Israel and home to 1.2 displaced Palestinians, is reportedly the final phase of Israel’s military operation in the Gaza Strip, which has killed more than 34,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children .

Human rights groups have warned that an attack on Gaza would lead to a humanitarian disaster and that civilians would have nowhere to flee, despite Israel’s calls for Rafah to be evacuated. Israel has also cut off the flow of aid to Gaza, worsening what the United Nations has described as a “full-blown” famine.

At the same time, fighting between Hezbollah and Israel has been escalating since Monday. Hezbollah killed two Israeli soldiers with explosive drones in the northern Israeli city of Metula on Monday. On Tuesday, Israel carried out a series of airstrikes, including ten, on the Lebanese border town of Aita al-Shaab.

A possible invasion of Rafah would not only have enormous humanitarian consequences, but could also shake the dynamic that has defined seven months of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel.

What are Hezbollah’s red lines?

Hezbollah’s announcement that it would enter a war with Israel over Hamas came through rockets it fired into northern Israel on October 8. Hezbollah said its attack came “in solidarity” with Hamas’s surprise attack on Israeli military bases and civilian settlements in and around the Gaza Strip a day earlier, which killed 1,200 Israelis.

Since then, Hezbollah has made clear that its attacks on Israel are aimed at withdrawing military resources from Gaza and are not aimed at provoking an all-out war with Israel.

Hezbollah has claimed it has withdrawn a third of Israel’s army to its northern border, which might otherwise have focused on the war on Gaza.

The escalation in recent days may therefore be related to Hezbollah’s role as a “support front” designed to divert Israel’s attention away from Rafah and thus increase the costs of a possible escalation.

“Hezbollah’s position and the escalation on its front have always been linked to the Gaza front. First, it was designated as a support front for Hamas in Gaza,” said retired Lebanese Brigadier General Charles Abi Nader The new Arab.

Brig. General Abi Nader also stressed that the escalation was linked to Israel’s killing of four civilians on Sunday in the border town of Mais al-Jabal. The killing of civilians has resulted in severe retaliation by Hezbollah in the past.

Still, Hezbollah and other Iran-linked groups in the so-called “Axis of Resistance” may have internal red lines that could lead to a broader military confrontation with Israel if an invasion of Rafah crosses those red lines.

“If Israeli operations in Gaza were to develop further, we would see increased pressure on the Lebanese front from Hezbollah and the Iraqi and Yemeni resistance; everything will escalate,” said Brigadier General. said General Abi Nader.

Israel has said an operation in Rafah aims to destroy Hamas’s last stronghold in the Gaza Strip. Whether this is true or whether Hezbollah and others believe Hamas would not survive an invasion of Rafah is still unclear.

“The question is whether Hezbollah and other Axis members would view a broader invasion of Rafah as a real existential threat to the Palestinian resistance in Gaza,” said Sam Heller, a fellow at the Century Foundation TNA.

Hezbollah has made clear that its military activities are aimed at supporting Hamas, but not at drawing Lebanon into an all-out war. However, the loss of the Palestinian resistance hub would be a significant loss.

“Given that Palestine is the lodestar of the axis of resistance and the prospect that the armed resistance within Palestine will be effectively liquidated, I am not sure how to respond to this,” Heller said.

What happens if there is a ceasefire?

On Monday, Hamas announced it had accepted a Qatari-Egyptian proposal for a ceasefire after seven months of fighting. Palestinians in Gaza took to the streets to celebrate, finally seeing a possible end to the hellish conditions they have been suffering since October.

Israel did not accept the ceasefire agreement, saying it was a modified version of the original proposal. The following day, Israeli tanks rolled into Rafah, destroying the celebratory atmosphere overnight.

Since then, negotiators from both sides have been working to reach a ceasefire proposal, with significant US pressure on Israel to reach an agreement and not carry out an operation in Rafah.

If a ceasefire is reached, the status of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict will become much clearer.

Hezbollah has made it clear that it will stop all attacks on Israel once a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. When a ceasefire was reached in November, both Israel and Hezbollah stopped fighting.

However, it is unclear whether Israel will settle for a ceasefire on its northern front or instead use the time to focus its full attention on Hezbollah.

“De-escalation is not a unilateral decision; it is a bilateral issue between Hezbollah and the Israelis. Suspending Hezbollah’s operations without more substantive agreements will not be enough for the Israelis,” Heller said.

Even if Hezbollah stops firing rockets into Israel, it will not provide the necessary security guarantees to ensure the return of Israeli citizens displaced by the fighting in northern Israel.

Israel has called for Hezbollah’s withdrawal north of the Litani River, about 30 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border. Hezbollah has publicly refused to enter into negotiations while privately signaling that it would be open to some form of border demarcation between the two countries.

However, Hezbollah appears unlikely to comply with Israeli withdrawal demands.

Israel has repeatedly stated that if a diplomatic solution to Hezbollah’s presence on the border is not found, it will impose a solution militarily.

Israel has indicated that a Lebanon operation, if it were to take place, would take place after the Rafah issue was settled so that the country would not have to fight on two fronts.

The question of war in Lebanon, whether following a Rafah operation or a ceasefire in Gaza, appears to depend on diplomatic efforts. So far, diplomatic efforts have borne little fruit.