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Iran accelerates efforts to sustain Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel

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As Ynet reports, Iran has significantly increased its arms smuggling to Hezbollah in recent weeks. Among the smuggled goods are important air defense systems that Hezbollah needs to fend off attacks by the Israeli Air Force in southern Lebanon.

In recent months, the terrorist organization has attempted – and occasionally succeeded – in attacking Israeli Defense Force drones. In response, the Israeli Air Force has attacked either the interceptor systems or their parent units, depending on the established framework of the war.

In addition to air defense systems, Tehran is also trying to supply Hezbollah with Almas missiles – an Iranian-developed anti-tank missile equipped with a camera in the warhead. These long-range, relatively accurate, television-guided missiles do not require a direct line of sight to the target. These weapons were developed based on the Rafael Spike missiles that Hezbollah received during the Second Lebanon War. They were reportedly transported in large trucks and pickup trucks to conceal their true purpose.

Lighting a match in a room full of gasoline

Recently, Arab media reported several Israeli Air Force attacks on the Iraqi-Syrian and Syrian-Lebanese borders. It is estimated that these attacks destroyed air defense systems of the Shiite organization, which has lost a significant number of such systems since the beginning of the fighting. Since the outbreak of the war, Hezbollah has managed to intercept five Israeli drones and regularly fires on Israeli Air Force aircraft. On June 1, for example, the terrorist organization managed to shoot down a drone in Lebanon with a surface-to-air missile. Footage from the scene shows a Hermes 900 multi-purpose UAV – known in Hebrew as Kochav (star) – bursting into flames and crashing.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to threaten Israel with an all-out war if it launches an attack on Lebanon. Late Friday night, Iran’s UN delegation said on its X-account that a “war of extermination” would ensue if Israel decides to launch an all-out attack on its northern border. The delegation called Israeli “propaganda” about an attack on Lebanon “psychological warfare,” but warned that in that case, “all options, including the full involvement of all resistance fronts (such as militias and Houthis), are on the table.”

However, other voices are coming from Lebanon. Ibrahim al-Amin, editor of the Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar, which is close to Hezbollah, wrote a few days ago: “The resistance does not want a total war. It is doing everything it can to prevent it. This includes an escalation of rhetoric at the political level, operational warnings and certain actions to make the enemy aware of the high costs of a major war.”

According to the IDF, Lebanon does not have the heavy and precise strike capabilities of the Israeli military, let alone the world’s most advanced air defense systems – Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow. In fact, a senior IDF general believes Israel made a mistake by not exacting a price from Lebanon as a state from the outset and instead focusing only on Hezbollah in a limited manner to avoid escalation to a full-scale attack.

“Lebanon should have been part of the equation from the beginning,” the general said. “We made a mistake by not including it in the campaign. Even with low-intensity attacks on vital interests, we would have applied international and internal pressure that would have acted as a braking factor on the continuation of the campaign.”

It is worth noting that this position does not enjoy unanimous support within the Israel Defense Forces General Staff. Others believe that such a move would have led to a full-scale war, strengthened Hezbollah in its role as defender of Lebanon, and damaged the main effort against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

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