Houston Astros vs New York Mets Prediction for 06/30/2024

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Match Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Place: City Field
• Starting pitchers:

  • Shawn Dubin – Astros
  • Luis Severino – Mets

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs. New York Mets Win Odds

The implied winning percentage in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for bettors to assess the probability of an event happening based on the odds offered by bookmakers.

Projected Winning Percentage, also known as Projected Winning Probability, is an estimate from ATS.io for determining the likelihood of a team winning a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics and historical data.

Houston Astros vs. New York Mets Betting Preview

With the New York Mets and Houston Astros both sitting at .500 (40-40 and 41-41, respectively), this interleague matchup at Citi Field on June 30, 2024 has the potential to push a team over the line of mediocrity. The Mets, who are the betting favorites with a -160 moneyline and a 59% implied win probability, will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and their strong offensive ranking. The Mets are currently 6th in offense, 8th in batting average, and 4th in home runs. They will also hope to build on their recent form, including the standout performances of Jose Iglesias, who has been red-hot this past week with a .600 batting average and 1.600 OPS through 5 games.

Luis Severino, the Mets’ starting pitcher, is a mix of promise and worry. While Severino’s 3.29 ERA is impressive, THE BAT Despite this, Severino’s 5-2 record in 15 starts indicates a knack for winning, although his 19.0% strikeout rate is less than ideal against an Astros lineup that makes the fewest strikeouts in MLB. With the Mets having an above-average offense, Severino’s ability to limit the high-contact Astros will be crucial.

On the flip side, the Astros will counter with Shawn Dubin, whose 5.64 ERA and 1-1 record reflect a rough season. However, Dubin’s 3.76 xFIP indicates he’s been unlucky and could have better results. He’s a groundball pitcher (52% GO rate), which could help neutralize the Mets’ potent lineup. The Astros’ offense also brings firepower, ranking 5th overall and leading the MLB in batting average. Jake Meyers has been a standout over the past week, hitting .429 with a 1.341 OPS, giving Houston hope for offensive production.

Both bullpens are considered average, with the Mets ranked 16th and the Astros ranked 14th in the Power Rankings. This game will come down to which starting pitcher can outperform expectations and whether the Mets’ high-powered offense or the Astros’ high-contact lineup comes out on top. Given the Mets’ high implied total of 4.68 runs, they are slight favorites to edge the Astros in this crucial game.

Quick takes on the Houston Astros:

Among all SPs, Shawn Dubin’s fastball velocity of 94.4 mph sits in the 78th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component of fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jose Altuve has been very lucky when it comes to his wOBA this year; his rate of .354 is well above his expected wOBA of .332, based on the leading projection system’s (THE BAT X) interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA.

The Houston Astros’ bats have been among the best in Major League Baseball this year (7th-) rating their average exit velocity at 89.2 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can reach it.

New York Mets Quick Look:

Luis Severino has enjoyed more leeway than the typical pitcher this year, totaling 5.0 more adjusted pitches per outing than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with longer leads are more likely to go further in games and record more strikeouts.

Mark Vientos has made notable improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his seasonal rate from 15.1% to 29.2% over the last two weeks of play.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit speed and launch angle and is a great measure of underlying power.

Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite field strike rate on his fly balls (37.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the 4th shallowest LF fences in the game in today’s game ‘today.

• This player’s skillset is a particularly good fit for the park he’s in today, which can lead to better than usual performances.

Gaming Trends

• The New York Mets have reached the team total over in 46 of their last 76 games (+11.25 units / 12% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have reached the under game total in 41 of their last 65 games (+16.85 units / 23% ROI)
• DJ Stewart has reached Walks Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.15 units / 27% ROI)

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Prediction

Final score: Houston Astros 4.5 vs. New York Mets 4.79

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