Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: Best Bet

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Place: Truist Park
• Starting pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter – Pirates
  • Spencer Schwellenbach – Braves

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Winning Odds

The implied winning percentage in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for bettors to assess the probability of an event happening based on the odds offered by bookmakers.

Projected win percentage, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood of a team winning a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 30, 2024 at Truist Park, we find ourselves facing two teams on different trajectories this season. The Braves, at 46-35, are having a solid season. Meanwhile, the Pirates, at 39-43, are struggling to stay afloat.

Spencer Schwellenbach will be on the mound for the Braves. Although his 5.40 ERA this season suggests he struggled, his 3.76 xFIP indicates he was unlucky and could perform better in the future. Despite a 1-3 win/loss record in 5 starts, Schwellenbach’s underlying stats make him an intriguing pitcher to watch. On the other side, Bailey Falter will be the starting pitcher for the Pirates. Falter has a 4.00 ERA but a 4.59 xFIP, which suggests he’s been lucky so far. With a record of 3-6 wins/losses in 15 starts, he hasn’t really been a model of consistency.

The Braves’ offense, ranked 13th in MLB, is looking to capitalize on Falter’s vulnerabilities. While they rank 16th in batting average and 14th in home runs, their struggles on the base paths (27th in stolen bases) could limit their scoring opportunities. The Pirates’ offense, however, has been one of the worst in the league, ranking 28th overall and 24th in batting average and home runs.

In their last few games, the Braves were buoyed by Jarred Kelenic, who posted a .385 batting average and a 1.164 OPS over the last 7 games, adding 3 home runs and 7 RBIs. On the other hand, the Pirates’ Connor Joe has been a bright spot, hitting for .500 with a 1.386 OPS over his last 5 games.

The Braves’ bullpen, ranked 7th in MLB, should provide a solid safety net against a Pirates lineup that is struggling to generate offense. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ 19th-ranked bullpen leaves a lot to be desired.

With the total points scored at 9.0 points, expect this game to be punctuated by some runs, especially from the Braves, who have a projected team total of 5.09 points. As the heavy favorite with a -175 moneyline, the Braves have an implied win probability of 62%, making them the safest bet to come out on top in this National League matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Quick Look:

Despite popular belief, fastballs are generally the least effective pitches for a pitcher. Bailey Falter used his low velocity and breaking balls 13.5% less often this season (33.7%) than last season (47.2%).

• Fastballs are the easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who starts using his fastball more often will likely be less effective than before.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system’s (THE BAT X) version of expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.4) provides evidence that Oneil Cruz has had poor variance on his side this year with his actual HR of 22.1/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs.

Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his fly balls to center field (40.8% – 99th percentile) and has a chance to face the 5th shallowest CF fences in the game in today’s game.

• This player’s skillset fits particularly well with the park he’s in today, which can lead to better-than-usual performances.

Atlanta Braves Quick Look:

Among all SPs, Spencer Schwellenbach’s fastball velocity of 95.2 mph ranks in the 90th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component of fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jarred Kelenic is expected to move to No. 1 on the lineup today, which would be an improvement over his 77% success rate in the bottom half of the batting order this year.

• The higher a player hits in the order, the more plate appearances he will have and the more opportunities he will have to reach the Over for each market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does can provide an opportunity for additional value since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Atlanta Braves now have 3 bats in their projected offense with a high underlying K% (over 27%) (via leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ramon Laureano, Adam Duvall, Jarred Kelenic).

• Teams that have multiple high-output hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts.

Gaming Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have reached Game Total Under in 49 of their last 77 games (+20.50 units / 24% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have reached the Under team total in 49 of their last 79 games (+15.35 units / 17% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia has reached Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 home games (+11.65 units / 51% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.47 vs. Atlanta Braves 5.87

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