Houston Astros vs. New York Mets Odds, Picks & Predictions

THE New York Mets (40-40) welcome the Houston Astros (41-41) at Citi Field on Sunday. First pitch of the three-game series finale is set for 1:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze the lines from FanDuel Sportsbook around the Astros vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Seasonal Series: Tied 1-1

The Mets are 21-24 at home after losing 9-6 on Saturday despite finishing as a -111 favorite. New York saw its 4 winning streak come to an end, but still has a 12-3 record in its last 15 games. The Mets have won 8 of their last 9 home games. They are 40-40 against the spread (ATS).

The Astros are 17-22 on the road after losing Saturday, but won the series opener 7-2 on Friday. They are also playing well, having won 8 of their last 9 games. Houston has won 3 of its last 4 road games. It is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games to even its season ATS record at 41-41.

Astros vs Mets: Predicted starters

RHP Shawn Dubin against RHP Luis Severino

Dubin (1-1, 5.64 ERA) is making his 15th appearance and 1st start. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 22 1/3 IP.

• Last game: No decision, 1 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 7-1 home win over the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday
• 2024 Away Splits: 0-0, 6.14 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.77 WHIP, 0 HR, 12.3 K/9 in 5 appearances
• Career vs. Mets: 0-0, 15.00 ERA (3 IP, 5 ER), 2.67 WHIP, 12.0 K/9 in 1 appearance

Severino (5-2, 3.29 ERA) is making his 16th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 90 1/3 IP.

• Last Start: Won, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 10 K in a 5-2 road win over the Chicago Cubs on Sunday
• 2024 Home Splits: 3-1, 2.47 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 5 HR, 6.7 K/9 in 8 starts
• Career vs. Astros: 2-4, 4.93 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 9 appearances (8 starts)

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Astros at Mets odds

Powered by FanDuel Sportsbook; Go to the USA TODAY Sports Sports Betting Scores & Odds hub for a complete list. Lines last updated at 7:48 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Astros +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Bet -154 (bet $154 to win $100)
• Running Line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-160) | Put -1.5 (+130)
• More/Less (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Astros at Mets Picks and Predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Astros 4

Money line

BETTING ON THE METS (-154).

The Astros, given that Dubin has made numerous appearances but not started, will likely turn to their bullpen early on. They rank 13th in the major leagues in reliever earned run average. The Astros’ strength in their recent winning streak has been their pitching game, which allowed 1 or 2 runs in 4 games from June 22-26. Over the last 2 games, they have allowed 13 points.

Dubin and an average bullpen will have a red-hot Mets team that has put up at least 6 runs in 4 straight games. The Mets have won Severino’s last 5 starts, but have only covered in 3. Given these trends, take the team with the best starting option here and back METS (-154).

Racing Line/Against the Spread

PASS.

Simply put, the Mets are too risky as a running line favorite, while the Astros are too expensive as a running line underdog. The best value, on both sides, is on the moneyline.

More less

LEAN MORE 9 (-110).

The Mets are 5-2 O/U in Severino’s last 7 starts and scoring easily last week. They have gone over in 4 consecutive games and in 5 of their last 7. New York has allowed at least 7 points in 2 of its last 4 and in 3 of its last 6.

The Astros, who are just 30-48-4 O/U, have gone over the projected total in two straight games and are 3-1-1 O/U in their last 5 games . They have scored at least 5 points in 7 of their last 8 games. With these trends in mind, let’s return to OVER 9 (-110).

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