Maryland Democratic Senate primary in dead heat: poll

Caroline Vakil and The Hill

23 minutes ago

Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) speaks at a press conference on Capitol Hill on January 17, 2019. Angela Alsobrooks speaks during a campaign event at Monument City Brewing Company in Baltimore on October 23, 2023. Maryland’s Democratic Senate primary is becoming increasingly bitter between Trone and Alsobrooks as the party prepares to face former Gov. Larry Hogan in November to compete.

Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) are in a dead heat in Maryland’s Democratic Senate primary, according to a new poll.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill/DC News Now poll released Thursday showed Alsobrooks at 42 percent and Trone at 41 percent in the Democratic nomination to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.).

Twelve percent of respondents said they were undecided, while another five percent said they supported someone else.

Since the margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, Alsobrooks and Trone are essentially tied.

But if you include undecided voters and ask who they lean towards, Alsobrooks gets 47 percent, while Trone is at 44 percent, still within the margin of error.

The poll differs from a similar poll in February that had Trone at 32 percent and Alsobrooks at 17 percent. Trone has spent tens of millions of dollars on the Democratic primary, with the dynamics of the race changing as the primary draws closer.

“Among those who have already voted, Trone is ahead 51% to 45%, while those who have probably but not yet voted are ahead of Alsobrooks 41% to 37%,” said Spencer Kimball, Emerson’s chief executive College Polling, released in a press release.

Former Gov. Larry Hogan (right) is expected to make a run for the Republican nomination. The poll shows him receiving 56 percent in the Republican primary.

When the poll suggests hypothetical matchups between Hogan and his two main rivals in November, both Democrats are ahead. Alsobrooks gets 48 percent, while Hogan gets 38 percent. Trone leads Hogan 49 percent to 38 percent.

Hogan’s unexpected entry into the race set up a surprise victory for Democrats in what was supposed to be an easy win for them in a deep blue state. Some recent polls have shown him leading both Alsobrooks and Trone.

Maryland’s Senate primary is Tuesday.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill/DC News Now poll was conducted between May 6 and May 8 with 1,115 registered voters in Maryland. The margin of error is plus/minus 2.9 percentage points. The poll includes 462 respondents polled in the Democratic primary, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, while 248 respondents polled in the Republican primary, with a margin of error of plus or minus 6.2 percentage points.