Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun Point Spread Pick

Hoping the sun doesn’t burn me anymore

To summarize: 0-1
Save: 15-11

Goodbye: Defeat in the under-152 category during the Connecticut/Washington match.
What happened?
Let’s look at the neighborhoods.

The third quarter saw 34 points scored. Extrapolated over a full four quarter game, that would be 136 points scored, 16 under where I needed to be to stay under 152′.

The fourth quarter saw the same 34 points scored. Extrapolated over a full match, it’s 136, again 16 points below where I needed to be.

This is the type of score I expected from the number one defense in the league and the team that plays at the slowest pace.

So what happened to my Under?

Well, the game went to overtime. But that wasn’t the problem. The problem was the 53 points scored in the first quarter, which extrapolated to 212 points, a pace where the game would bring a horrible 60 points from what I needed.

In the first quarter, the Mystics shot nearly 70% from three-point range and over 60% from the field goal range, so I was pretty much dead after the first quarter, meaning not only did I lose the game, but I didn’t even enjoy watching it on TV.

I’m watching this game closely in this review because I have to use Connecticut again tonight.
I have two choices:

First off, I have Connecticut in the same game at the Over as last night, now record 1-1. No benefits there.
Tonight’s number is even lower than last night’s, it’s 150′. They’re playing Atlanta and those two met earlier in the season and only scored 119 points. That’s 31 points less than tonight’s number. But last year ALL four games easily exceeded tonight’s number, so I’m not touching on this one’s total.

Second, their opponent tonight, Atlanta, fits one of my methods for identifying bad favorites. This spot has an overall record of 5-10. Split into the Home/Road subset, the road team is 3-6, a 67% fade.

With a 67% fade at my disposal, this seems like an easy decision to make, right?
Fake.

As a sports bettor, I have a lot of stupid superstitions. One of them is do not bet on a system that you did not bet on the day before and which wonwhich means you lost a banking unit.
Last night I had three different games that fit the systems I use. I made a bad pick with the Under in the Connecticut game. I could have picked one in the same game I have in this game tonight, the best method I have for picking bad favorites. It was said that Indy should have been a -1 favorite against Seattle, which was -8. The Storm won by 12 and I missed the winner. Tonight this place says Atlanta should be -1.

I find myself in the unenviable position of being Johnny Come Lately, pouncing on a play that won last night, a play I ignored.
I’ll accept it anyway and hope to prove that it’s just a stupid superstition.
I have to use the data I’m mapping so I’m rolling with a Fade on this spot 3-6.

Connecticut -9′