Battleground: Could the debate in Atlanta change the minds of voters in the swing state of Georgia? | Georgia

(The Center Square) – Joe Biden won Georgia in the 2020 election with 0.23% of the vote, the narrowest margin of any state. What happens in Atlanta on Thursday could determine whether he wins the state and the presidency again.

Biden and presumptive Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump will meet Thursday evening in Atlanta for the first presidential debate of the 2024 election, hosted by CNN. The highly anticipated clash between the two men – two rival US presidents in 2020 who have been personally attacking each other for years – and their tight race in Georgia have some political scientists thinking the debate could prove decisive in the swing state, a target. for both campaigns.

“(T)he earlier schedule for the first debate (which typically takes place in the fall) may mean that there is a slightly higher percentage of undecided voters than usual,” Jamie Carson, professor in political science at the University of Georgia (UGA). ), wrote to The Center Square. “At this point, both candidates are unpopular, so a decisive victory in the first debate could change the minds of some voters.”

Georgia voted for Trump in the 2016 election and for Biden in 2020, with the latter result largely attributed to voters in metro Atlanta suburbs – particularly Gwinnett, Cobb, Henry and DeKalb counties – voting for Biden . Currently, Trump leads Biden by a margin of 5 percentage points in the state, according to a June poll by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Biden and Trump have already debated twice, during the 2020 election, which were watched in real time by 73 million and 62 million Americans, respectively, according to Pew Research. Thursday’s debate will likely draw as many, if not more, viewers — who will be scrutinizing both candidates’ performances.

“(A)ll eyes will be on Georgia this week…(it’s) a must-win event,” Carson noted.

Other political observers suggest that the candidates’ behavior, more than their arguments, will affect the outcome.

“I think it could have an effect both in Georgia (and) everywhere, if one of two things happens: Either Biden has some kind of ‘senior moment’ and it’s really obvious … or Trump comes across as unpresidential, argumentative and shouty,” MV “Trey” Hood III, director of UGA’s Survey Research Center, told The Center Square. “It depends less on the content of the debate and more on the demeanor of the two candidates.”

Hood’s observation about the behavior echoes the first presidential debate of 2020, when Biden and Trump faced off in an event moderated by then-Fox News anchor Chris Wallace. The event was widely criticized after Trump repeatedly interrupted Biden and took issue with Wallace’s moderation, with experts saying his performance hurt his outreach to suburban voters.

Biden, who is currently 81, has made several public gaffes during his time in office and was attacked by Trump, 78, over his mental fitness to participate in the debate. “DRUG TEST FOR CROOKED JOE BIDEN??? I WOULD ALSO IMMEDIATELY ACCEPT ONE!!!” Trump wrote on his social media platform Monday.

Yet most data suggests that debates rarely change voters’ minds. A 2020 Monmouth University poll found that 87% of voters said debates would not affect their decision.

“You know, people know who these two guys are at this point, and they’ve already factored all of that into their own preferences,” Hood said.

The Biden and Trump presidential campaigns did not immediately respond to a request for comment.