Stat Prediction Indicates QB Josh Allen's Regression in One Area

Even Hall of Fame running back Thurman Thomas hasn’t come this close to tying OJ Simpson’s Buffalo Bills single-season record of 16 touchdowns.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen has scored 15 rushing touchdowns in 2023, threatening Simpson’s franchise mark while setting the NFL single-season record for TD runs by a non-running back.

Even as reliable as Allen, the TD total is considered a bit of an aberration. In the factsPorts Illustrated Fantasy football expert Michael Fabiano predicts the Bills QB1 won’t be able to repeat that feat in 2024.

Identifying potential statistical regressions across the fantasy landscape, Fabiano listed Allen’s 15 rushing touchdowns as a 2023 stat that won’t be replicated this season. The analysis also suggests that Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua will see a decline from his rookie receiving total of 1,575 yards and that Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert will score more than the league-leading 21 touchdowns he scored a year ago.

Information systems 20 Fantasy Football Stats from 2023 We Won’t See Again in 2024:

Josh Allen’s 15 rushing touchdowns
Allen and Jalen Hurts both rushed for 15 scores a season ago, which is the most for a quarterback in league history. Additionally, there have only been six quarterbacks who rushed for at least 10 touchdowns in a single season in the Super Bowl era. This list includes Allen, Hurts (2), Cam Newton (2), Kyler Murray, Kordell Stewart and Daunte Culpepper. Allen had never rushed for more than nine touchdowns in a single season before last season, so I expect that 15 point total to go down.

RELATED: Only two recent drafts eclipse the Bills’ Josh Allen-led 2018 class

During his career, Allen has 53 rushing touchdowns in 94 regular season appearances. Allen, 28, broke the Bills career record for TD runs by a QB (originally set by the late Jack Kemp – 40) and currently ranks second all-time in NFL history behind Cam Newton (75).

— Benefit from free bill coverage Buffalo Bills on SI —