“Azm-e-Istehkam”: Can Pakistan’s new military operation curb armed attacks? | Conflict News

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan’s top leadership has agreed to launch a new military operation aimed at curbing rising violence.

The operation, named Azm-e-Istehkam, which means “determination for stability” in Urdu, was announced after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif over the weekend led a review of the country’s “counter-terror” operations, particularly the National Action Plan adopted after the attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar in December 2014. More than 140 people, mostly schoolchildren, were killed in the attack, which was claimed by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) organizations.

The new military plan is expected to focus on internal security threats and armed militants entering the country from Afghanistan, as tensions rise between Islamabad and the Taliban rulers in Kabul. A statement from Sharif’s office on June 22 spoke of plans to “intensify” efforts to contain “terrorists” through regional cooperation with Pakistan’s neighbors.

“The campaign will be complemented by socio-economic measures that address people’s real concerns and create an environment that counteracts extremist tendencies,” the statement continued.

But the new campaign is just the latest in a series of military operations Pakistan has launched with the aim of deterring armed violence. Its timing has raised questions about what sparked the initiative – and what it might achieve. Pakistan had already announced a military operation for April 2023 during Sharif’s previous term as prime minister, but an official military campaign never began.

Tensions in Afghanistan

Although the launch date of Operation Azm-e-Istehkam has not been officially announced, the announcement comes at a time when the country has witnessed a dramatic increase in violent incidents over the past 18 months. Most of these attacks are being carried out by the TTP, which is ideologically allied with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The TTP unilaterally ended a ceasefire in November 2022 and Pakistan has repeatedly accused Kabul of harboring them. The Taliban government, which came to power in August 2021, has consistently denied this accusation.

Now the already strained relations could be put to a further test if the Pakistani military operation expands into Afghanistan, as analysts predict, partly based on recent events.

“In March, Pakistan even carried out cross-border attacks on suspected Pakistani Taliban hideouts in Afghanistan, which were publicly confirmed by the Foreign Ministry,” Ihsanullah Tipu, an Islamabad-based security analyst, told Al Jazeera in an interview.

Tipu, who also heads The Khorasan Diary, a news and investigative portal that analyzes security issues in the region, added that Islamabad sees the use of active military force – known in army jargon as “kinetic action” – as the most effective approach to combat armed violence.

A Chinese trigger or domestic political approach?

According to available data, there were nearly 1,000 casualties in nearly 700 violent incidents in Pakistan in 2023, with most attacks occurring in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the southwestern province of Balochistan and often targeting police officers.

Violent attacks continued in 2024, including incidents against Chinese facilities and personnel in the northern and southern regions. An attack on a convoy of Chinese engineers in March left at least five Chinese and one Pakistani dead.

China, one of Pakistan’s key allies, has invested $62 billion in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) development project. Sharif and Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir made a five-day trip to China earlier this month, with the security of Chinese nationals and interests a key part of their agenda.

Senior Chinese politician Liu Jianchao visited Pakistan last week and reiterated the importance of protecting Chinese interests in the country. “We need to improve security and business environment. In the case of Pakistan, the security situation is the main factor that shakes the confidence of Chinese investors,” Liu told representatives of Pakistan’s leading political parties on June 21 during his three-day visit.

However, Asfandyar Mir, a South Asia expert at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), said that while Pakistan’s leadership was likely influenced by Chinese concerns, the timing of the new operation may have been more driven by domestic political and economic considerations.

“Last year, Pakistan was on the verge of default and went through a disputed election amid considerable domestic political turmoil. A large-scale military campaign was not feasible under those circumstances,” Mir told Al Jazeera.

“With elections completed, a stable government formed and the economy relatively stabilized, Pakistan’s leadership likely believes it has the domestic political space and economic stability needed to mount an aggressive campaign to resolve the deteriorating security situation,” Mir added.

Will the new operation work?

Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based researcher who studies armed groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan, was skeptical about the operation’s chances of success.

Sayed said armed groups are now primarily targeting security forces to undermine government interests while preventing the loss of public support. In provinces worst affected by armed violence, a lack of public support for the security forces “could undermine the effectiveness of the operation,” he told Al Jazeera.

Tipu pointed to another challenge that the security forces may face: the temporary nature of the TTP’s bases in Pakistan and the possibility of an escalation of tensions with Afghanistan.

“The Pakistani Taliban do not have permanent bases in Pakistan but operate from makeshift bases and frequently change locations,” he said. “If Pakistan conducts cross-border operations in Afghanistan, it could escalate tensions between the two countries.”

Although China is now putting pressure on Pakistan to address the armed violence, Beijing is not entirely aligned with Islamabad when it comes to the current rulers in Kabul because of its strategic relationship with the Taliban, Mir says.

“Pakistan and China are at odds over how to deal with the Taliban. A military campaign of cross-border attacks to pressure the Taliban could challenge Beijing’s stance toward Afghanistan,” Mir warned.