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Why did American Airlines really stop pilot training?

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American Airlines has informed a prospective pilot that his training will be suspended until the end of the year. What is really behind the interruption?

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American Airlines stops pilot training

On Thursday, notorious poster on X, JonNYC, shared a series of emails purporting to be from a pilot candidate who was set to begin training with American Airlines this month. Someone from American Airlines delivered the candidate the bad news that they would be suspending pilot training for the rest of 2024.

JonNYC also pointed out that due to the introduction of the mandatory retirement age of 65 in the US, approximately 1,300 pilots will be lost in the next 18 months until the end of 2025.

The industry website Skift confirmed the suspensions by American Airlines management.

“American Airlines pauses hiring of new pilots as the airline reevaluates its growth plans for the year. The airline said it will temporarily pause hiring of new pilots in September, October and November.

The decision does not affect current pilots, but some pilots who had received conditional offers will not join until the pause is lifted.

“This decision allows us to optimize our capacity and adjust our talent growth plans to best meet the current needs of our airline,” American said in a statement. – Skift

It should be noted that classes were cancelled during these three months, but December was not yet planned and is not planned now.

The model does not work

Previous posts about pilot furloughs, breaks or cancellations have been met with a cheap answer: Boeing production delays and Airbus A320 engine deliveries. American has not attributed the withdrawal to any of these issues, although they are struggling with both.

Three weeks ago, I wrote that American Airlines was in “as much chaos as it could be.”

I was wrong. This week was worse.

American Airlines management has drastically revised its revenue forecast for the second quarter downward.

“American’s second quarter TRASM guidance is now expected to decline approximately 5% to 6%, compared to the previous guidance of 1% to 2%. Operating margin will also decline 1%, putting it in a range of approximately 8.5% to 9.5%.

American shares are having their worst day since June 2020, during the pandemic.” – Yahoo! Finance

The stock fell nearly 20% on Friday. Pilot training has been suspended because the airline has too many pilots for the demand it is experiencing. This is shocking because we are in the peak travel season, as the TSA just processed the most passengers (2.95 million) in a single day this week.

Is there anything other than inability or gross incompetence to cause this?

Do frequent travelers not book with American because of the potential for strikes?

One possible answer could be that American Airlines cannot afford to pay its flight attendants more or not meet their demands, and so a flight attendant strike is almost certain. I have seen some frequent flyer groups put frequent flyers who do not book with the brand in question at risk of having their trips jeopardized due to industrial action.

But is the flight attendants’ struggle so widespread that it is causing revenue losses of 3-5% above forecasts? Possibly. But based on the last two months, that figure would have to be $406-676 million, and that seems way too much. And since the strike hasn’t happened yet, the drop in revenue cannot be attributed to the measures taken.

Diploma

I would argue that American Airlines management is simply not up to the task. Vasu’s concepts were not good and neither was his department’s execution. But Vasu was not responsible for the previous five years of underperformance relative to competitors, he was not responsible for the airline’s disproportionate debt, and it was not Vasu who was responsible for not doing anything to improve flight attendants’ contracts during the same period. It’s not Boeing’s failure to deliver planes, it’s not problems with engine delivery for the A320, and it’s not even the recent racism issues that prompted CEO Isom to publicly apologize.

Incompetence. Disinterest. Take your pick.

What do you think? What is the real reason why American Airlines is pausing pilot training?

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