The southwest of the Gulf is on alert due to new tropical developments

June 23 (UPI) – As a new disturbance rolls across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, conditions will be favorable to spawn a tropical depression or tropical storm, just days after Alberto formed in the same region, AccuWeather meteorologists say. The system will bring heavy rains to northeastern Mexico, while downpours will flood parts of southern Texas.

“This phenomenon we’re seeing in the southwestern Gulf is a disturbance in the Central America Gyre that broke loose this weekend and rolled west-northwest,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s senior tropical meteorologist.

Advertising

A vortex is a large, slowly rotating low-pressure area that often intensifies showers and thunderstorms within its area of ​​influence. Vortexes over Central America and southern Mexico are common at this time of year and can contribute to the formation of tropical storms or hurricanes over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and eastern Pacific.

AccuWeather began monitoring the system’s potential in early June and released an official track map for the rainstorm’s center late last week. The system will push heavy rainfall inland, with the risk of flooding, regardless of its official classification.

AccuWeather is calling it a tropical rainstorm to highlight the potential dangers. Only the National Hurricane Center can officially designate the system as a tropical depression or tropical storm.

The system could develop into a tropical depression or storm before moving ashore in northeastern Mexico late Sunday night. The southwestern Gulf system could become the second such system of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The next two names on the 2024 list are Beryl and Chris.

As the storm approaches the northeastern coast of Mexico on Sunday, it will bring heavy rainfall and coastal impacts such as storm surges and rip currents to many of the areas affected by Alberto. The focus of this new storm will be northeastern Mexico and along the immediate lower Rio Grande Valley on the Texas side of the border.

DaSilva explained that the impacts of this system along the coast of central and northern Texas would be significantly less than those of Alberto because this new system is a bit more compact and may track a bit further south in Mexico.

Alberto’s large-scale circulation caused significant storm surge flooding as far north as the Texas coast.

However, even a smaller storm surge can cause flooding problems along the Texas coast, especially because some protective buffers may be damaged as a result of Alberto and access roads may need to be repaired.

Rainfall of 10 to 20 centimeters is expected across the northeast of Mexico. Some coastal areas and inland areas on the eastern slopes of the mountains are expected to receive 20 to 30 centimeters. In some places, the amounts may be even higher. Since some of these areas were hit by rainfall similar to that in Alberto just a few days earlier, the risk of flash floods and landslides is significantly higher.

Parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley in Texas may experience sudden flooding due to ongoing drought, but also another dose of beneficial rain.

Beachgoers and boaters should prepare for rapidly deteriorating conditions on Sunday. As the center moves over open waters of the southwestern Gulf after crossing Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, development could continue rapidly due to increasing winds and waves.

The beginning of an extremely severe hurricane season

As the southwestern Gulf system moves in, the Atlantic could become quiet again for several days. A lull in tropical activity is not unusual in July. But after tropical activity subsides, AccuWeather forecasters predict that the Atlantic will become a breeding ground for a record number of tropical storms and hurricanes later in the summer and fall.

Rapid intensification can occur in many tropical systems. If this occurs close to land, it can significantly increase the risk to life and property.