At Biden’s request, Ukraine is holding back on attacks on Russian oil refineries – and American gas prices are falling

As America’s summer auto season begins this weekend, Ukrainian war planners are refining their response to the Biden administration’s request to decongest Russian oil refineries and depots. The requests began in late March, when Biden administration officials feared the political impact of high gasoline prices during election season.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan reportedly delivered this message to President Zelensky at a closed-door meeting in Kyiv on March 20. Two weeks later, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin addressed the public, warning that attacks on Russian refineries could have “a domino effect on the global energy situation.”

Speaking before the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington, he said Ukraine would be “better advised to attack tactical and operational targets that can directly impact the current fight.”

Over the next three months, Ukrainian drones and homemade cruise missiles carried out 11 major attacks on Russian refineries and oil depots, Reuters reports. Since that figure was announced on Tuesday, Ukraine has attacked three more oil targets. One of them, a tank farm in Azov, was still burning last night.

In the first three months of this year, Ukraine attacked Russian oil and gas export terminals as far away as St. Petersburg. After Washington issued warnings, the Ukrainian military attacked mainly little-known terminals and depots that directly supply the Russian war machine.

Attacks on these oil facilities “significantly complicate the enemy forces’ ability to carry out their missions,” the Ukrainian General Staff said in a statement last week.

The statement was prompted by a successful drone attack on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Rostov-on-Don region on June 5. The military said: “According to intelligence reports, the invaders lost 1.5 million tons of oil and petroleum products as a result of the attack, which is worth about $540 million.”

Rostov Governor Vasily Golubev told the Interfax news agency that the attack caused a fire and “significant disruption.” Reuters reported that the fire forced the plant to shut down.

In the first two months of this year, Ukraine’s drone campaign was so successful that Russia imposed a six-month ban on gasoline exports on March 1. However, by mid-May, pressure on major refineries eased and Russia was able to lift the ban by July 1.

Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia. For American drivers, Ukraine’s campaign against Russian oil refineries and depots this summer appears to have had no impact.

The average American retail price of gasoline is $3.56 per gallon, down 3.5 percent from a year ago. Since the end of April, the average American price has actually fallen by 6 percent.

To cut off links to Russia’s front lines, Ukraine largely uses domestic missile and drone technology. The Biden administration is limiting the use of the high-precision long-range tactical missiles to Russian troop concentrations and equipment just across the border from Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Sumy regions.

To compensate for this, Ukraine is now deploying its Neptune missiles, which have a similar range of 320 kilometers. Designed as anti-ship missiles, the Neptune missiles have been modified to hit land targets as well. In the last three weeks, Neptune missiles have hit oil terminals and tank farms in three cities near Crimea.

The Neptune missiles targeted “areas on Russian territory that are within range of U.S. tactical missiles, but are also protected by U.S. policy that has created a vast safe haven on Russian territory,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War reported on Tuesday.

On Wednesday evening, Ukrainian drones struck the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar region, the Enem oil depot in the Republic of Adygea and an oil depot in Platonovka in Tambov region. For many Russians, these place names mean little. Their real impact comes from the smartphone videos of oily orange flames that are increasingly common on the Russian-language internet.

Those flames could burn even higher and brighter after this November. If American pressure eases, Ukraine could again target Russia’s major export terminals for oil and refined products.

Before Ukraine changed its strategy last spring, up to 14 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity was disrupted. Russia’s energy industry could increasingly find itself between a production bottleneck and a consumer bottleneck.

Yesterday, the EU decided on its first sanctions against Russian liquefied natural gas, targeting deliveries of the frozen product. The agreement prohibits Russian exporters from using EU ports for gas transfers between large tankers and smaller ships bound for third countries. The new sanctions also block European financing of Russia’s planned LNG terminals in the Arctic and Baltic states.

Almost all Russian LNG is delivered in ice-capable vessels from the Arctic. It is not profitable to travel further south to a non-EU port such as Morocco. The alternative would be to transport the gas via the northern sea route across the Eurasian continent. Since this route is blocked by ice for nine months of the year, ice-capable LNG container ships could remain unused for three quarters of the year.

Falling demand and shrinking supply do not bode well for a country that Senator McCain once described as “a gas station masquerading as a country.”