Poll shows Trump and Biden tied ahead of next week’s debate

FILE – Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, seen here in 2020 at their first debate, are neck and neck ahead of their first meeting in 2024, according to a new poll. (Pool/Getty Images/TNS)

A new poll shows the former and incumbent presidents tied just over a week before their first head-to-head matchup of the 2024 election cycle.

An NPR/PBS News/Marist national poll released Tuesday shows President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump tied at 49%, with Trump holding a slight 1% lead when the poll is restricted to those who say they will definitely vote in November, according to pollsters.

“While Biden has improved his standing among independents, Trump has increased his lead among white voters,” the pollsters wrote.

Biden’s support among independents was once 42% to Trump’s 54% and is now 50% to the 45th president’s 48%. Trump’s lead among white voters has risen from six to 12 percentage points and is now 55%, while Biden’s support among non-white voters has risen about as much from 58%, rising from an 11% lead over Trump to 18%.

According to Lee Miringoff, director of the Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College, Trump’s recent conviction on 34 counts in the run-up to the 2016 election for falsifying business records is to blame for the growing gaps.

“Although the results have remained broadly the same, there are interesting developments behind the scenes. Since Trump’s guilty verdict in the New York hush money trial, some familiar voting patterns have resurfaced. Biden’s standing has improved among independent and non-white voters, and Trump has secured more support among white voters,” Miringoff said.

In a race that also includes third-party candidates Robert Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, Cornel West and Chase Oliver, Trump again leads by a single point, with Biden losing the most to the other options.

“Trump receives the support of 42% of registered voters nationwide, Biden 41%. Kennedy receives 11%, compared to 3% for West, 1% for Stein and 1% for Oliver. Kennedy receives similar shares of support from Biden and Trump supporters. However, West, Stein and Oliver together receive 7% from Biden. Among Trump supporters, only Oliver receives 1%,” the pollsters wrote.

According to the poll, most voters surveyed prefer Trump when it comes to handling the economy and immigration, while a majority prefer Biden on abortion issues and “on the question of who would do a better job of preserving democracy.” Voters tend to believe Biden cares more about the average citizen than Trump, according to the poll, but are divided on which of the two better represents the U.S. on the world stage.

The poll shows that inflation is the most important issue for voters this year, with 30 percent saying the cost of living is their biggest concern when choosing a presidential candidate. Preserving democracy comes in second at 29 percent and immigration third at 18 percent.

According to the poll results, most voters are dissatisfied with the two candidates from the major parties who are once again at the top of the electoral list.

The first presidential debate will be moderated by CNN on June 27.