Poll: Trump and Biden tied nationwide, just nine days before first presidential debate

The race for the White House is neck and neck between former President Donald Trump and President Biden, a new poll shows.

Trump, 78, and Biden, 81, each received 49 percent support among registered voters nationwide, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll poll released Tuesday. The presumptive Republican nominee is up one percentage point from the last poll in late May, while the incumbent Democrat is down one percentage point.

When other candidates were included in the race, Trump led Biden 42% to 41%, followed by independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (11%), independent Cornel West (3%), Green Party candidate Jill (1%) and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver (1%).

The poll found that Kennedy received similar levels of support from both potential Trump and Biden voters, while West, Stein and Oliver together cost Biden 7% of the vote.

Among those who said they would definitely vote on November 5, Trump was narrowly ahead. In the head-to-head comparison, he won by 50 percent to 49 percent and beat Biden in the five-candidate race by 44 percent to 43 percent.

The approval ratings of both candidates from the major parties were similarly low, with 53 percent saying they had an unfavorable opinion of both men.

However, among registered voters, Biden narrowly overtook Trump in the popularity rankings: 43 percent of voters said they had a positive opinion of the president, and 42 percent said they had a good opinion of his predecessor.

Another key finding of the poll was that Trump beat Biden by seven percentage points (48% to 41%) among so-called “double haters” – voters who reject both candidates.

However, among self-identified independents, Biden was two percentage points ahead of Trump (50% to 48%), a rare lead for the president in this crucial voting bloc.

“While the top results remain largely the same, there are interesting developments under the hood,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in a statement.

“Since Trump’s guilty verdict in the New York hush money trial, some familiar voting patterns have resurfaced. Biden’s standing has improved among independent and non-white voters, and Trump has secured more support among white voters.”

Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of white-collar fraud by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg on May 30 made an impression on voters: 51 percent of voters said Trump should “definitely” or “probably” serve a prison sentence for the offense.

Voters were divided on who was best equipped to tackle most of the United States’ most pressing challenges: Trump won on the economy (54% to 45%), immigration (54% to 44%) and the United States’ role on the world stage (50% to 49%), while Biden took the lead on abortion (55% to 41%) and preserving democracy (53% to 45%).

The first duel between Trump and Biden in the general election will take place on June 27 in Atlanta.

Nearly two-thirds of registered voters (65%) say they plan to watch the debate, compared to 22% who will not watch the debate but will follow the news afterward, and 12% who will not pay attention to the debate.

1,184 registered voters took part in the poll between June 10 and 13. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.