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Houston under flood watch as heavy rain arrives Tuesday evening

People gather to bypass a bridge over Lake Houston along the West Lake Houston Parkway after it closed due to high water May 4 in Kingwood.

People gather to bypass a bridge over Lake Houston along the West Lake Houston Parkway after it closed due to high water May 4 in Kingwood.

Jason Fochtman/Staff Photographer

Parts of Southeast Texas will be under a flood watch starting Tuesday evening, as a deep plume of tropical moisture is poised to bring heavy rain to the region.

Numerous showers are expected through Tuesday afternoon, but the heaviest and most widespread precipitation arrives late Tuesday and is expected to persist through Wednesday. By the time all is said and done, precipitation totals could exceed half a foot south of Houston. Here’s how much rain you can expect over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Potential tropical cyclone 1

Chances of rain are expected to begin fairly early in the day on Tuesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers are expected until about 8 a.m., which could cause some slowdowns for morning commuters, similar to what the storms caused early Monday.

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Models were consistent in placing the heaviest and most widespread precipitation in Southeast Texas later in the day. Tuesday afternoon will see storms arrive as an axis of moisture-rich air arrives from the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture will be pushed north, thanks to what has been dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 by the National Hurricane Center.

The forecast track for Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 is shown here, according to the National Hurricane Center.  This system, while not directly affecting Southeast Texas, will bring heavy rain and flooding risks to the Houston metro area.

The forecast track for Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 is shown here, according to the National Hurricane Center. This system, while not directly affecting Southeast Texas, will bring heavy rain and flooding risks to the Houston metro area.

National Hurricane Center

If you can work from home on Tuesday afternoon, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to do so as we may have some flooded roads. The rain that begins to fall on Tuesday is expected to continue over the next few days.

June 16 could be a disaster

Rain is expected to persist through the June 19 holiday. If you plan to go out for the various festivities taking place Wednesday in the Houston area, keep a close eye on how the weather impacts these events.

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RISK OF FLOODING: Are you new to the Houston area and unsure of your flood risk? You can verify your address by clicking here.

Whatever your plans on Wednesday, the risk of heavy rain will be highest primarily along and south of Interstate 10 from Houston to San Antonio. The highest precipitation totals are expected to fall along the Texas Gulf Coast from Galveston Bay to Corpus Christi. Rainfall totals of 8 to 10 inches will be possible, especially between Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi.

Forecast precipitation totals through Thursday in Southeast Texas are shown, according to the National Weather Service.

Forecast precipitation totals through Thursday in Southeast Texas are shown, according to the National Weather Service.

National Weather Service

Outside of the coasts, precipitation accumulations will decrease a little. Most of Houston and Harris County are expected to receive 3 to 6 inches of rain, with higher totals found primarily in the southern half of the county. Areas hit hard by spring flooding, like Huntsville and Trinity, will likely see between 2 and 4 inches of rain by midweek. Although the flood watch that goes into effect Tuesday evening does not include Montgomery or Walker counties, flood-prone areas should still remain vigilant for water levels.

More typical storm risks

After Wednesday, the region should see a return to more typical summer thunderstorms.

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This means there is a 40-60% chance of a storm occurring in the afternoon or evening, as opposed to a widespread rain shield, due to a tropical disturbance. Still, more rain isn’t necessarily what the region needs to help reduce the risk of flooding from earlier this week.

By the weekend, storm chances could drop as much as 20 or 30 percent as temperatures warm into the lower and mid 90s.