First alarm forecast

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First weather warning:

• Severe storms are possible today and will likely last two rounds
• Timing: From late morning to evening
• The active pattern finally breaks through Thursday into the weekend

Today is another weather warning day, and these storms could be even more severe than some we’ve seen recently. The immediate St. Louis area is at a Severe Level 3 risk (the highest out of 5), and an even higher Level 4 risk has been added over the southern portion of our observation area. We’re focusing on late morning into evening and expect there to be two rounds of storms. Both rounds are capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and a strong tornado. In St. Louis, the timing for strong to severe storms is noon to 6 p.m. Localized flooding is also possible, particularly in St. Louis to the south.

The first round of potentially severe storms will occur today along a warm front and reach St. Louis during the midday and early afternoon hours. This could impact the path and intensity of the second round of storms later in the day. So if these initial storms are widespread (and not isolated), they will play a big role in how severe the later storms could be. As for the second round, we will see a cold front moving through the area in the afternoon and evening that could also produce severe storms. For St. Louis, we expect to be on alert for both rounds from 12 p.m. to 6 p.m., and areas south and east of St. Louis will need to remain vigilant for a few more hours after that. Again, keep in mind that the first round of storms will have a large impact on the timing and intensity of the second round, and that these effects will not be fully clear until the first round is complete.

Beyond today, we see a cooler, calmer and mostly dry weather pattern Thursday through the weekend. Scattered showers can’t be ruled out from Thursday afternoon through Friday, but that’s not even part of our official 7-day forecast. This is a big change from our recent pattern of warm and stormy weather.

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