An Iranian military adviser was reportedly killed in Syria, two months after Iran and Israel came close to war

CNN
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Israeli airstrikes on the Syrian city of Aleppo killed an Iranian military adviser early Monday, Iranian media reported. Two months earlier, the Middle East was pushed to the brink of major war when Israel and Iran launched unprecedented direct attacks on each other’s territory.

Saeed Abiyar, an adviser to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria, died in the attack, the semi-official Iranian news agency Tasnim reported.

Syrian state news agency SANA said the incident occurred at around 12:20 a.m. local time on Monday after Israel launched a rocket attack on “a number of points” around Aleppo, but there was no information on casualties.

CNN has asked the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for comment, as they do not normally acknowledge such attacks.

Abiyar is the first IRGC member to be killed by Israel since April, when Israel reportedly bombed the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, killing several commanders, including the top IRGC commander in charge of relations with Syria and Lebanon.

The Islamic Republic responded to that attack by barraging drones and missiles at Israel, most of which were intercepted. Israel returned fire, a US official told CNN, targeting a major Iranian military base near the city of Isfahan.

Iran has sent military advisers to Syria since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011 to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Israel is said to have carried out several attacks on Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria in recent years, particularly since the start of the war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Israel warns that Iran is turning the country into a “base for aggression against Israel.”

After the April exchange, Iran said it had created “a new equation” with Israel and vowed to retaliate any time Israel attacks its interests in the future. “The era of strategic patience is over,” said Mohammad Jamshidi, the Iranian president’s deputy chief of staff.

Monday’s attack suggests that Iran’s “new equation” suggesting a restoration of deterrence may not have been achieved, said Trita Parsi, a Washington DC-based Iran analyst and vice chairman of the Quincy Institute think tank, adding that this was the first such attack since the April exchange of fire.

The collapse came at a time of domestic political turmoil in Iran. Former President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash last month along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other Iranian politicians. Iran is currently in the process of electing a new leader.

“The Israelis may have calculated that this is an opportune time to attack,” Parsi told CNN, adding that the attack could pose a dilemma for Iranian authorities on how to respond.

The killing also came against a backdrop of Israel’s growing isolation on the world stage due to its devastating war in Gaza, while pressure on Israel to end hostilities is mounting from several sides. Last week, US President Joe Biden joined the chorus of world leaders calling for an end to the war.

Abiyar’s assassination increases the risk of a repeat of the unprecedented direct exchanges between Iran and Israel in April. However, an escalation is not inevitable.

The Iranian anger in April was likely triggered by a combination of escalating factors, including the fact that the attack was on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which is technically on Iranian soil. Israel denied this, claiming the target was an Iranian military headquarters.

Monday’s strike does not reach that threshold. Neither country seems to want an escalation – neither in April nor now.

Tehran must make a decision, said Parsi. “On the one hand, the pressure will increase on them to react in order to be able to claim that their deterrent power has been restored. On the other hand, do they want an escalation in the middle of this very sensitive election?”