Hurricane warnings have been issued for parts of the Texas coast as Beryl approaches

HOUSTON – Hurricane warnings have been issued for parts of the Texas coast as Tropical Storm Beryl approaches on Saturday.

Beryl is expected to make landfall in Texas on Monday.

We’ve been monitoring forecast changes over the past few days to see what impacts the Houston area will have.

Here are the latest updates.

Current situation

As of 4 p.m. Saturday, Beryl remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.

It is located about 385 miles southeast of Corpus Christi and is moving northwest at a speed of 13 mph. The minimum pressure has dropped to 997 mb.

Beryl has been trying to get more organized over the past few hours, but is currently battling wind shear and dry air that is trying to force its way into the circulation. However, conditions are expected to become more favorable by tonight through early tomorrow and Beryl is expected to strengthen into a hurricane again before making landfall on Monday.

Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Texas coast from Baffin Bay north to Sargent. These warnings are typically issued 36 hours before a tropical storm or hurricane is expected to make landfall in the area.

A tropical storm warning is also in effect from Sargent to High Island.

The models are starting to agree on Beryl’s final destination, but I’m not going to hold my breath, because things have changed a lot in the last few days. However, we’re getting closer to landfall and there’s only so much these storms can do in the time they have left before they make landfall.

Models show Beryl making landfall somewhere between Rockport and Matagorda Bay early Monday. It is unclear how strong it will be when it makes landfall and most models are predicting a Category 1 storm with winds near 90 mph. However, I would expect Beryl to be perhaps as strong as a Category 2 or possibly a Category 3 storm at landfall as warmer water temperatures could mean this storm could intensify quickly.

Beryl is a fairly compact storm, so if it were to swing east or west 20 to 30 miles, it could make a big difference in who sees the strongest winds.

For the Houston area, I would expect tropical storm force winds at least Monday morning. Wind speeds are between 39 and 73 miles per hour.

The Houston area is also expected to see heavy rain from Beryl. The good news is that by all indications, Beryl will move at a reasonable pace and it doesn’t look like we’ll be dealing with a storm that will stop. So while we will see rain and potentially a lot of rain, it doesn’t look like Beryl will stop.

Due to heavy rain expected in Beryl, a flood watch has been issued for the Houston area to the west. The watch expires at 7 a.m. Tuesday.

For the Texas coast, here is the latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center on expected storm surge:

From Mesquite Bay, TX to Sargent, TX…4 to 6 feet

Matagorda Bay…4-6 feet

From Sargent, TX to San Luis Pass, TX…3 to 5 feet

Entrance N Padre Island NS, TX to Mesquite Bay, TX…3-5 feet

Corpus Christi Bay…3 to 5 feet

Mouth of Rio Grande, TX to N entrance of Padre Island NS, TX…2-4 feet

From San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2 to 4 feet

Galveston Bay…2 to 4 feet

Sabine Pass, TX to Cameron, LA…1-3 feet

As with any landfalling tropical system, isolated tornadoes will be a concern starting Sunday as the outer bands of Beryl begin to move closer to the Texas coast. This will need to be closely monitored to see how severe the tornado threat becomes.

Things to see

• According to the latest data, Beryl is expected to make landfall between Rockport and Matagorda Bay. Areas as far north as Freeport and Galveston should keep an eye on it in case trends start to move it north again.

• Beryl is expected to intensify again and become a Category 1 hurricane at landfall. Its intensity will need to be closely monitored as there is a risk that Beryl will be stronger at landfall.

• Beryl is a compact storm and any wobble in its path could have a significant impact on those who see the system’s strongest winds.