Houston flood risk arrives Monday amid surge of tropical humidity

A tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to develop further this week, sending rounds of heavy rain to the Houston area.

The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring a large area of ​​unstable weather over Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, which has a high chance of developing. Although a direct landfall along the upper Texas Gulf Coast is not expected, the effects of what could become the first named system of the hurricane season will nonetheless be felt.

PREPARE NOW: Hurricane preparation can be expensive, but local officials recommend starting small and early. Learn more about hurricane preparedness here.

Here’s what you need to know about the multifaceted risks from this week’s tropical hazards.

The risk of scattered showers begins early Monday and will be highest along the immediate coast. Showers are likely as tropical humidity gradually increases, but most early morning commutes should be relatively trouble-free weather-wise.

As the day progresses and humidity levels continue to increase, storms will be capable of delivering heavier rainfall. Localized flash flooding will be a concern in the afternoon and evening, especially near and south of Interstate10. Although flooding is possible Monday, it appears higher flooding concerns will arrive Tuesday through Wednesday.

Global forecast models continue to suggest the heaviest rain this week will arrive as a series of disturbances rotate nearby Tuesday into Thursday.

KNOW YOUR RISK: Find out what your long-term flood risk is using our interactive maps. Simply click here and enter your address.

The arrival of the heaviest rains will coincide with a surge of deep tropical moisture, which will bring atmospheric humidity levels to near record highs. Precipitable water, which describes the amount of moisture from ground level to the top of the atmosphere, will be between 2.5 and 3 inches. This means that if the water vapor in a single column of air could be instantly released, the result would be 2.5 to 3 inches of water in your backyard rain gauge.

The atmosphere will be very effective in producing incredibly heavy precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday. This, combined with a very wet spring for many, will overwhelm the soils. Flooding will be a concern for many, especially from Houston to Beaumont to the south, Tuesday through Wednesday. This period presents a moderate flood risk, or a level 3 out of 4, according to the Weather Prediction Center.

TRACK TROPICAL PROBLEMS: Once a system gets a name, you can track it using our interactive Texas Storm Tracker.

Rain falling Monday through Tuesday afternoon will set the stage for flooding when the heaviest rain arrives late Tuesday and Wednesday. If you live in an area likely to flood, make sure you have multiple ways to receive weather alerts this week. Severe storms causing hail or damaging winds are not expected, but a few waterspouts cannot be fully contained along the upper Texas Gulf Coast.

Flood: The main risk for the Houston area this week will be flooding from heavy rain. Forecast rainfall totals have steadily increased since late last week and it appears isolated totals of a foot or more could fall on the southeast Texas coast, where the risk of flooding will be highest . Rainfall totals between 6 and 8 inches are expected across much of Harris County, with totals of 4 to 6 inches possible farther north of I-10. For Huntsville, an area hit hard by relentless spring rains, even the 2 to 4 inches of rain currently forecast could cause localized flooding issues through Thursday.

Marine risks: Winds are expected to increase steadily mid-week as the pressure gradient tightens. Gusts along the coast of 40 mph or more are expected Tuesday through Wednesday. The small craft advisory criteria will likely be met by Monday, depending on forecast discussions from the local National Weather Service. Waves of 10 to 15 feet are possible Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon in offshore waters.

Coastal flooding: Persistent and intensified southeasterly winds will likely keep water levels along the coast above normal throughout this week. During the high tide cycles on Tuesday and Wednesday this could lead to coastal flooding. Areas prone to coastal flooding will need to be closely monitored until mid-week.

Risk of rip current: The upper Texas Gulf Coast will not experience ideal beach weather this week. Dangerous waves are expected to bring a high risk of rip currents through Thursday and possibly beyond. If red flags are raised, avoid getting in the water.