Atlanta Falcons 2024 – FTN (For The Numbers) – Fantasy Football, DVOA, Paris, DFS

Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 Fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley will be going through the league team by team all summer long. They will pick sleepers, misses and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they will agree! Sometimes they will completely oppose each other! And that’s great, because they will defend their positions and you can decide for yourself who you side with. Today: the Atlanta Falcons.

Below, they discuss the team, starting with their choices in “The Answers” and then expanding on their choices in “The Explanation.”

Sleepers, busts and bold predictions for 2024: Atlanta Falcons

The answers

Favorite sleeper

Wicked:Darnell Mooney
Kelly: Drake London

Biggest bust

Wicked: Drake London
Kelly: Kirk Cousins

Bold prediction

Wicked: Kyle Pitts is the overall TE1
Kelly: Bijan Robinson finishes top scorer in the general classification

The explanations

Sleepers

Meaney: Darnell Mooney

I’ve never really been interested in Mooney, but there is reason to be optimistic about him from a fantasy standpoint this season with his move to Atlanta. Mooney has just 71 catches and just over 900 yards in his last two seasons, but he’s three years removed from a 1,055-yard season in which he totaled 81 catches (61 in his rookie season). Mooney will play a big role in the Falcons offense, with particular attention paid to Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson out of the backfield. Mooney has a healthy 11.22 yards aDOT over the past two seasons according to our air yards tool, and while that number has led to some inconsistency in fantasy play, Cousins ​​will be the best QB he’s ever played with. never played. I don’t expect him to flirt with 81 grabs or 1,000 yards, but he appeals in deeper leagues and in better ball formats. Mooney has given us more bust games than booms, but there is potential for more booms in Atlanta. I can confidently say that he will surpass his three touchdowns over the last two seasons.

Kelley: Drake London

It’s hard to separate a receiver’s production from what his quarterback and offense do for him, but anything we can do in that regard makes Drake London look very strong. His overall PFF grades were 83.2 (12^th among qualified WRs in 2022) and 78.9 (23^rd in 2023). His yards per route were 2.1 (13^th among qualified WRs in 2022) and 1.9 (30^th in 2023). Sure, he doesn’t have a 1,000-yard season yet and only has 6 combined touchdowns in two years, but working in an Arthur Smith with Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback may have some bad impacts on a guy. The arrivals of head coach Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson and QBs Kirk Cousins ​​(if healthy) and Michael Penix Jr. (if Cousins ​​is not ) must more or less contribute to it.

The downside to this pick is that, to be a “sleeper”, London would have to end up as a top-six receiver, given his early ADP gives him WR10. So there’s not a big window for this to happen, but it’s on the table for the incredibly talented third-year receiver.

Busts

Meaney: Drake London

My friend Daniel Kelley makes a lot of good points regarding London. I’m excited he finally gets to play with a good quarterback and there isn’t a lot of competition for targets. I think he could definitely knock on the WR1 door, but I’m hesitant to draft him where he’s going. As a WR10, he’s ahead of proven wideouts like Brandon Aiyuk, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans and Chris Olave (the clear No. 1 target in New Orleans). Evans passed for 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns last season en route to a WR5 finish. He averaged 14.3 points per game, which was good enough for WR8. Even if Evans takes a step back, why do we prefer London instead? As much as I like Cousins ​​in Atlanta for all the weapons they have, let’s not forget that the soon-to-be 36-year-old is recovering from a ruptured Achilles. London looks more like a WR2 than a WR1. If you want to start WR/WR, sure, but starting RB/London doesn’t seem right.

Kelley: Kirk Cousins

Big flashing sign I’M NOT A DOCTOR here, but… We’ve been talking about the Achilles recoveries for Kirk Cousins ​​​​and Aaron Rodgers all offseason like they’re more or less the same thing, but the The differences are, to me, striking. First, Rodgers’ injury occurred two months earlier. Second, Rodgers returns to a team he had at least some familiarity with, while Cousins ​​starts over. And the biggest one for me (admittedly also the inspiration for the intro to I AM NOT A DOCTOR)… Rodgers’ torn Achilles tendon was in his left heel, while Cousins’s was in his right foot (planted). I can’t imagine it being much harder to recover from than recovering from a torn left foot. In less time. In a new environment.

(Lest you think this directly contradicts my “Sleeper: Drake London” entry above: If you’re a hobbled veteran quarterback Or a surprise recruit throwing the ball, who do you throw it to? Maybe your young receiver in the top 10 in the draft. I still think it works.)

Bold predictions

Meaney: Kyle Pitts is the overall TE1

Pitts has done nothing but let Fantasy managers down over the last two seasons, but I don’t think that’s his fault. Let’s not forget that Pitts racked up 1,026 yards on 68 catches and 110 targets during his rookie season. He didn’t even total 1,000 yards in his last two seasons combined. Again, not on him considering the Falcons only had 17 passing touchdowns last season. Cousins ​​is a huge upgrade at the QB position considering he threw 18 touchdowns in eight games last season. With Arthur Smith out of the picture (along with Jonnu Smith, who had three fewer catches than Pitts last season), we can feel a lot better about Pitts’ prospects in this offense. Think about TJ Hockenson’s production with Cousins ​​last season, and Atlanta will run a very similar offense to Minnesota’s last season. Head coach Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson both came from Sean McVay’s offense last season, as did current Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell. Pitts only has six touchdowns in 44 games, and I’m willing to bet he surpasses that total in Year 4, so take over with 4.5 touchdowns this season and have shares of that monster 6 6-foot, 246-pounder who can line up anywhere on the field.

Kelley: Bijan Robinson finishes top scorer overall

Zac Robinson is the Falcons’ new offensive coordinator, coming from the Sean McVay system, where Kyren Williams – a poorly tested second-year fifth rounder – just finished as PPR RB7 (RB2 per game) on the back of a heavy load of work in a good attack. We don’t know if Zac Robinson will echo his former head coach’s philosophy, but if he comes even closer, Bijan Robinson, whose only similarity to Williams is that he’s entering his second season – he has been eighth overall and has been one of the most exciting prospects in memory – should absolutely enjoy it. If I’m even slightly right about Kirk Cousins ​​slowly coming back from his torn Achilles, then handing the ball (or throwing it) to an elite running back behind a good offensive line is the best approach. Everything is in place for Bijan to break out after a disappointing rookie year in a major way. Christian McCaffrey certainly still makes sense with a 1.01 grade in drafts this year, but my personal ranking would put Robinson at 1.02.