New prediction for Atlanta with the No. 1 overall pick

The 2024 NBA Draft is fast approaching and is only a month away. This will be the next big event of the NBA offseason and after shocking the world by winning the draft lottery a few weeks ago, the Atlanta Hawks now control the draft with the first pick. Most mock drafts since the Hawks won the lottery have seen Atlanta take Alex Sarr, the 7’1 220 LBS forward/center from France. Sarr fills a huge need for the Hawks, as he should be an excellent defender with length and athleticism, although his offensive game needs to keep up.

However, in recent days, the Hawks have been linked to Frenchman Zaccharie Risacher and UConn center Donovan Clingan as possible selections with the No. 1 overall pick. Zach Buckley of Bleacher Report has released a new prediction on what the Hawks will do with the No. 1 overall pick:

“For many years it has now been quite obvious which player will go first.ll.

This is not one of those years.

As ESPN’s Jonathan Givony pointed out, people “don’t have a clear idea” of what the Atlanta Hawks will do with the No. 1 pick. Most, but certainly not all, of the mockery is that they would grab Alex Sarr, but Givony noted that they should also “consider other options…including (Zaccharie) Risacher, Donovan Clingan and business opportunities.

B/R’s Jonathan Wasserman also had Alex Sarr’s French compatriot Zaccharie Risacher at No. 1 for the Hawks in his May 21 mock draft.

Atlanta’s plan to, as general manager Landry Fields put it, “cast wide” seems smart at this stage of the draft process. But all the Hawks’ homework will probably lead them to the same conclusion as all those fake drafters:

Sarr should be the choice.

He could have, as Wasserman claimed in his Sarr Scouting Profile, “the highest two-way ceiling in the draft,” which kind of feels like a closed conclusion to this debate. If analysts think he’ll have a bigger impact than anyone on both ends of the floor, why bother going in a different direction?

Center may not be a position of glaring need for Atlanta on paper, but Clint Capela has been on the trading block for months (or more), and Onyeka Okongwu is far from a sure thing as full-time incumbent.

Sarr, meanwhile, could hit the ground running (uphill?) with the Hawks, anchoring their bottom-five defense with paint protection and perimeter-switching ability while perhaps becoming the preferred go-to partner with the point guard they keep. His ceiling, if fully realized, could one day feature dynamic finishing at the rim, jump shots to the perimeter and an ability to make plays for himself and his teammates on the short roll.

I don’t think it would be a shock to anyone if they took Sarr, although it seems like they are entertaining the other players in the front row. In a draft like this, there is no perfect player to take with the first pick and all of these guys have flaws. I have questions about the actual height of Risacher’s ceiling. Clingan’s offensive game is incomplete and may never be that good. Sarr has similar questions about shooting and his offensive game, even though it’s better than Clingan’s. All of these guys have traits that would be useful in Atlanta and I don’t think anyone should be upset if one of these guys ends up going #1.

I would take Sarr if I made the choice.

He is 7’1, 220 LBS and has a wingspan of 7’4. He uses his athleticism well and would immediately be an impact guy on that side of the floor. He’s arguably the highest prospect in the draft at a position of need for the Hawks. He is the presumptive favorite to be selected No. 1 for a reason.

If they take Sarr, I think it would hasten Clint Capela’s exit from the Hawks, because I think Sarr is going to play center in the league (but he could play power forward). Atlanta would be in a bind at this position and if you take Sarr at No. 1, he needs to play a lot of minutes right away, without coming off the bench. Capela was already a trade candidate due to his expiring contract and his age. I think the biggest question would be whether Sarr and Onyeka Okongwu could play together on the court. Okongwu has primarily been a center with the Hawks and rarely shares the court with another big man, although head coach Quin Snyder tried lineups with Capela and Okongwu on the court together last year, although it was in limited number.

According to Cleaning the Glass, Okongwu and Capela only played 279 possessions this season and had a +2.1 point differential when sharing the court. The problem is that this sample size is far too small and there isn’t enough evidence to say Okongwu could play all four well.

But it’s not just the fit between Okongwu and Sarr that would be the question. Jalen Johnson made huge strides on offense last season, including improving the three-point shot. Johnson shot 28.8% from three in 2022-23, but improved that to 35.5% this season, going 71-200. Could there be another leap in his future? This would help in the event that Atlanta decides to take Sarr and not trade Okongwu.

The defensive shape would be very intriguing with these three guys on the floor though. Some of Atlanta’s best lineups included Johnson and Okongwu, although it was a small sample size, but one has to wonder if there might be something there. If Johnson and Okongwu both show the moves to space the field, this could make for a dangerous lineup moving forward. The ability of Johnson, Okongwu and Sarr to switch and guard multiple positions would be something Atlanta never had with Trae Young and would help hide its defensive deficiencies.

The one aspect of this adjustment I haven’t mentioned yet is Trae Young, who is one of the best offensive players and shot creators in the NBA. Assuming the Hawks choose to keep him, Young makes life easier for all players on the court, which would make Sarr’s offensive transition easier. He never had the luxury of playing with a point guard of that caliber and he would have plenty of great looks on the court. It’s almost impossible to have a bad offense on the court as long as Young is leading the charge on that end, but shooting and spacing would remain the biggest question mark.