Beryl likely to pass near Houston area Monday, bringing winds and heavy rain – Space City Weather

In short:We are less than two days away from Beryl’s landfall and there are still many questions about the severity of the impacts in Houston. This article will attempt to answer those we can. In terms of planning, it is becoming increasingly clear that Monday, perhaps from the pre-dawn hours through early afternoon, will be the most impactful period in terms of severe weather.

Beryl State Saturday Afternoon

Good morning. As of 4 p.m. Central Time, Beryl remains a strong tropical storm with winds of 60 mph and slowly decreasing central pressure. It is tracking northwest and remains on track to make landfall in Texas on Monday, likely in the morning. There remains some uncertainty about the winds, storm surge, and precipitation that the Houston metropolitan area will experience.

You probably noticed the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (there was a lot of thunder and a lot of excited dogs in my area). These storms are not directly related to Hurricane Beryl, but rather a dying front meeting the sea breeze and partying with the peak of the day’s heat. These storms should weaken to the southwest tonight before fading away before or around sunset. After that, we can expect a calm night, I think.

Starting Sunday, perhaps around noon, we could see our first rains from the outer bands of Beryl. However, there should be no mobility issues to make final preparations before the hurricane reaches the Texas coast. I expect stronger winds to start reaching coastal areas Sunday night, so if you live in places like Galveston Island or Freeport, you probably won’t want to be out too late. After midnight, our area will start to feel the full effects of Beryl, which I’ll discuss below.

However, before moving on to the forecast, I would like to share a few general notes.

Maintenance notes

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Beryl’s Track and Intensity

As expected, Beryl spends most of the day pushing dry air to the south and wind shear to the southwest. The storm is starting to develop more organized thunderstorms, however, and is expected to slowly begin to intensify tonight. Sunday and Sunday night will present a more favorable opportunity for intensification, and the National Hurricane Center is calling for a Category 1 hurricane on the coast Monday morning. However, the storm could be a bit stronger than that, as we have historically seen hurricanes gain intensity quickly near the Texas coast.

We only have 36 to 48 hours left before the storm makes landfall along the North Texas coast. But there is still some uncertainty about where it will make landfall, and even 50 or 100 miles matters since the storm will make landfall relatively close to Houston. Our forecast models are pretty good, but we are talking about relatively small errors that could still be caused by a wobble or two.

My point is that Houston is kind of on the brink: depending on which way Beryl goes over the last day and a half, we could see fairly light winds or hurricane-force wind gusts, and a few inches of rain up to 10 inches or more. So my main message here is to prepare for severe power and mobility disruptions on Monday, and if we’re lucky, those issues will be minor. The forecast conditions described below are consistent with the National Hurricane Center’s latest operational outlook, which is the most likely (but not certain) outcome.

Timing and severity of Beryl’s impacts on Houston

Beryl has three main impacts: winds, storm surges, and heavy rains. Let’s review the latest thinking on each of them.

The winds:Tropical storm force winds could reach the upper Texas coast by Sunday night. In general, areas along and west of Interstate 45 have the highest chance of tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater, with higher gusts. In terms of potential power outages, I am most concerned about Brazoria and Fort Bend counties, and areas generally south and west of Houston. Again, the extent of our concerns about power losses will be determined by the potential for last-second fluctuations that bring the heart of the strongest winds closer (or not) to Houston.

Storm surge:Our storm surge outlook hasn’t changed much, with 3 to 5 feet expected along Galveston Island and 2 to 4 feet possible in Galveston Bay. That surge is expected to peak Monday morning, as Beryl approaches land and at the peak of high tide. Tide times vary by location, but in general, the highest water levels are expected between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. Central Time.

Precipitation:We have issued a Level 2 Flood Warning for the entire Houston metro area, but as with the Beryl winds, the flood risk is highest along and west of Interstate 45. guess The strongest band of storms will move through Houston Monday morning, perhaps between sunrise and around noon. This will likely produce the most intense rainfall and the greatest risk of rapid street flooding. If you plan on going out Monday morning, pay close attention to the weather. In terms of accumulation, I expect most of the region to see between 4 and 8 inches of rain, which is generally manageable. However, due to the tropical nature of this rainfall (which leads to high precipitation rates), some isolated areas could see up to 12 or even 15 inches. That’s… less manageable.

A word about flight cancellations

I mentioned this about three weeks ago, but I wanted to reiterate that we hear you on flight cancellations. This is a major concern during bad weather. I completely understand your anxiety. However, neither Matt nor I are aviation meteorologists or pilots. Unfortunately, we have no expertise or particular knowledge of the decisions made at airports that lead to flight groundings, or flight cancellations. We try to be helpful, but we can never give you the certainty that readers want on this issue. That said, I generally expect heavy rain or wind to disrupt and even cancel some flights on Monday or (less likely) Tuesday.

Our next update

We’ll be back late tonight, probably between 10-11pm CT, with a brief update on the track, the intensity, and some thoughts on the likelihood of Houston suffering more or less severe effects from Beryl. We’ll of course have full coverage on Sunday.