Houston won’t feel Beryl’s effects yet. That’s where it gets tricky

As Beryl continues to develop as a tropical storm across the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, Houston will emerge from the weekend with minimal influences from Beryl, save for the extra, moist air mass that sits over the region.

Afternoon thunderstorms this weekend could bring slightly heavier rain due to the influx of tropical moisture, but Beryl’s precipitation likely won’t arrive in Houston until Sunday night or Monday.

STAY ALERT: At this time of year, it is important to monitor for active tropical storms or hurricanes. Use our Texas Storm Tracker to monitor Beryl.

Despite a potential rainy spell early next week, Houston should avoid the worst that Beryl has to offer at this point. Cumulative rainfall through midweek could be 4 to 6 inches, especially toward the coast. Locally higher totals are possible, but manageable for area rivers and streams.

Expect windy conditions through Tuesday as Beryl approaches. Wind gusts could reach near tropical storm strength, around 39 mph (63 km/h). When tropical storms or hurricanes make landfall, sudden tornadoes are possible. While the risk is low, it is important to remain vigilant through Monday.

Temperatures will be cooler due to increased rain, clouds and wind. Maximum temperatures early next week will be between 26 and 32 degrees.

The first major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season formed in late June and is now a tropical storm making its final approach to the Gulf of Mexico. Fortunately, Beryl has weakened considerably since it first hit the Windward Islands as a major hurricane on Monday. However, that doesn’t mean it couldn’t regain strength over the weekend.

BERYL BREAKS RECORDS: According to one expert, Beryl could be a harbinger of what’s to come this season. Find out how here.

Beryl is expected to bring rain, wind, and high surf to South Texas throughout the weekend and into early next week. When will the worst weather arrive, and what can Houston expect from Beryl?

Confidence is high that the projected path will take Beryl into South Texas Sunday night through early Monday.

The first sign that Beryl is approaching Texas will be a stronger swell. This weekend, it is important for locals and vacationers to pay attention to any danger flags on the beach. This weekend, red flags will likely be displayed along the Texas Gulf Coast, indicating strong rip currents and dangerous surf. As a result, swimming will likely be dangerous in most cases.

RIP CURRENTS: How Hurricane Beryl, 600 miles away, is making Texas beaches dangerous with rip currents

Double red flags are possible this weekend, meaning the water is closed to the public due to dangerous conditions. This year, 19 deaths from rip currents have been reported, including two in the Galveston area.

The second sign of Beryl’s imminent approach will be an increase in winds. Tropical storm-force wind gusts in excess of 39 mph (63 km/h) are expected to arrive early Sunday from Corpus Christi to Brownsville. Beryl is not expected to bring the same winds to Texas that it did to parts of the Caribbean earlier in the week, but we could see hurricane-force wind gusts of 75 mph (120 km/h) in the Rio Grande Valley.

When it rains, it rains heavily, especially when it comes to landfalling tropical systems. The outer bands of Beryl are expected to reach South Texas by Sunday, bringing the heaviest rain along the coast early Monday. These tropical rains could cause river flooding and flash flooding, especially in poorly drained areas of urban centers.

Even if the remnants of Beryl persist through midweek, a continued flow of deep tropical moisture will maintain the potential for heavy rain. Coastal areas could see 4 to 8 inches of precipitation Sunday through Wednesday.

WHAT IS YOUR RISK? : You can use our interactive Texas flood map and tracker to see what your long-term flood risk is where you live.

Coastal flooding could overwhelm areas typically prone to flooding along the Texas Gulf Coast. While significant storm surge is not expected, a prolonged wind surge in the Gulf of Mexico will cause water to accumulate along the immediate shoreline, as we saw with Tropical Storm Alberto last month.

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