Beryl is not Hurricane Harvey, but the problem is, it could be Alicia

Updated Friday, July 5:

As the weekend approaches, I wanted to share some thoughts with you. If you are reading this late Saturday or even Sunday, you are reading an outdated article.

Please find the new information on click2houston.com.

Beryl is not Hurricane Harvey:

Some fear that Beryl will stall and cause catastrophic flooding like Harvey in 2017, because it could hit near Rockport, Texas. While Beryl could hit near Rockport, that would be the only similarity. In 2017, two high pressure areas, one in West Texas and one near the Great Lakes, blocked Harvey from moving.

On Monday, the only similarity will be the high pressure system near Florida. The other upper-level high pressure system is near California and a trough of low pressure is located north of Texas.

This is not a blocking weather phenomenon. The trough and high pressure will be able to move Beryl out of Texas. What worries me most is that the trough and high pressure will work together to steer Beryl closer to Houston.

In 1983, Hurricane Alicia struck southeast Texas as a Category 3 storm. It caused incredible wind damage, similar to the Houston derecho two months ago.

What worries me is that Beryl will get strong and possibly hit southeast Texas directly!

Friday Night Beryl Track:

The fear Friday night is that the landing trajectory has shifted even further east. Matagorda Bay could be hit directly by Beryl.

If we include the spaghetti tracks and the European model, we can see a target on Matagorda Bay.

Current Watches in Southeast Texas:

Hurricane-force winds are possible in the next 48 hours in the area outlined in orange. Significant wind damage, including tree fall and power outages, is possible.

A storm surge watch is also in effect with a storm surge potential of 3 to 5. The closer Beryl gets to us, the higher this level will be.

A coastal flood warning is in effect for Galveston, Brazoria and Galveston Bay. Flooding could reach three feet.

Houston and the rain:

Much depends on Beryl’s final path, but as things stand, much of southeast Texas could see about 5 inches of rain over the next five days. Flooding is possible. We’ll keep you updated.