Hurricane Beryl expected to move through South Texas with uncertain path

As Beryl moves across the Yucatan Peninsula, area residents should prepare — but not panic — for the possibility that the storm’s effects could reach Houston, meteorologists said Friday.

“It’s particularly tricky for Houston,” said Matt Lanza, a meteorologist and editor of Space City Weather. “The cone is where the center of the storm can move. You have to treat it with a grain of salt because a lot of impacts propagate out from the center.”

Beryl made landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula Friday morning as a Category 1 storm, but weakened to a tropical storm late in the afternoon with winds reaching 65 mph (105 kph). The storm is expected to turn north after passing through the Gulf of Mexico Friday night, regaining strength before approaching the southern Texas coast Sunday night as a hurricane, according to a 4 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

The center issued a hurricane and storm surge warning along the Texas coast from the Rio Grande to Sargent in eastern Matagorda County. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected along parts of the Gulf Coast and eastern Texas, with local amounts approaching 15 inches, the NHC advisory said. Flash flooding and urban flooding are expected.

Beryl’s apostrophe-shaped “cone of uncertainty” — what the National Hurricane Center projects as the storm’s likely path — encompasses much of the western Gulf Coast Friday afternoon.

The storm’s impacts and intensity on the Houston area will depend on the track it takes over the next 24 hours, Lanza said.

“The problem is that the storm is turning,” he explained. “When it comes in at an angle, the turn can be very abrupt. It’s those small changes in angle that can result in a 50 to 100 nautical mile difference in where the storm makes landfall.”

If the storm tracks far enough north toward Corpus Christi, it could make landfall as late as Monday. If it tracks farther southeast, it could make landfall as early as Sunday night, according to the NWS.

Houston is unlikely to see hurricane-force winds, but it could see strong gusts and lots of rainfall, Lanza said.

Residents along the coast should start preparing for tidal flooding no matter where the storm ultimately makes landfall, Lanza said. Tides are expected to peak around noon Monday, according to the NWS.

The eastern side of a hurricane always produces more rainfall than the western side because the storm’s counterclockwise rotation draws in moist tropical air, creating rainbands extending away from the storm’s center, Lanza said.

Most of the Houston area faces a slight risk of heavy rain and flash flooding Monday night and Tuesday, according to the NWS.

The National Hurricane Center encouraged residents to closely monitor the storm’s track and their local forecasts as the storm moves out of Mexico and into the Gulf.

Harris County officials said they are closely monitoring Beryl’s progress.

“Houston has a lot of opportunities for Beryl,” said Brian Murray, deputy emergency management coordinator for the Harris County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. “We have to wait and see.”

Murray said he did not expect Beryl to prompt evacuations, but said the storm could bring several inches of rain.

Officials said Beryl’s impact on the Houston area would become clearer throughout the weekend. Murray urged residents to stay alert to office messages and forecasts.

The city of Houston is preparing for the many possible impacts of the storm on the region, said Brent Taylor, communications director for the Houston Office of Emergency Management.

Taylor explained that most of these preparations take place before and during hurricane season, regardless of the current storm threat. He encouraged Houstonians to take the same steps now, such as developing an emergency plan and stocking up on supplies needed in case of a hurricane.

“This is not the time to panic, but it is time to prepare,” Taylor said.

The Office of Emergency Management offers hurricane preparedness checklists and registration for city emergency alerts.

While it’s too early to consider calling for evacuations, Taylor encouraged residents to sign up for emergency alerts as Beryl moves closer to Texas.

The biggest threat to the city will likely be precipitation, Taylor added.

“In Houston, a hurricane doesn’t cause huge flooding,” he said. “We’ve seen that many times, and recently as well.”

Reporter McKenna Oxenden contributed to this article.

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