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Tigers vs Braves Prediction and Picks for June 17, 2024

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THE Detroit Tigers will face the Atlanta Braves Monday at Truist Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET.

The Braves are -205 moneyline favorites and the game total is 8.5 runs scored.

Detroit (34-37 SU, 32-39 RL and 40-28-3 O/U) starts right-hander Reese Olson. The 24-year-old is 1-8 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 13 outings this season.

Atlanta (38-31 SU, 33-36 RL and 27-39-3 O/U) counterattacks with left-hander Max Fried. The 30-year-old is 6-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his 13 starts.

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Reese Olson struggled during night games

The Tigers closed a series with Houston on Sunday, losing two of three. They are three games under .500 and 11 games out of the division lead in the AL Central.

Detroit ranks 25th in OBP (.301), 19th in OPS (.681), 21st in home runs (67) and 13th in RBI (288). The Tigers pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA (11th) and a 1.22 WHIP (9th).

Olson will lead the visitors in the series opener. In his last start, the second-year pro allowed five runs (four earned) on ten hits in a 5.1 inning loss to Washington. He is 0-4 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in seven road starts (34.0 IP) this year. Olson faced Atlanta once last season, allowing seven runs (six earned) on five hits and two walks in 3.1 frames.

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Max Fried is a master on the mound

The Braves lost 8-6 to Tampa Bay yesterday, but still won the three-game series. The ATL is seven games over .500 and eight behind NL East division leader Philadelphia.

Atlanta ranks 13th in OBP (.311), 12th in OPS (.715), 15th in home runs (72) and 13th in RBI (288). The Braves pitching staff sports a 3.66 ERA (8th) and a WHIP of 1.23 (11th).

Fried will take the mound for the home team tomorrow night. In his last appearance, the eighth-year left-hander allowed four runs on six hits in a five-inning loss to Baltimore. He is 2-1 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in four home starts (25.2 IP). Fried has a K:BB ratio of 70:24 in 78.2 combined innings this season. He never faced the Tigers.

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Best bets for this game

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In this interleague matchup, I favor a bet on the Braves running line. They are hitting .263 BA/.328 OBP/.424 SLG/.752 OPS at Truist Park and are 21-12 at home. With Fried on the hill, I think they have a starting advantage to pull off a RL win.

The veteran southpaw has been tough to hit in night games, going 5-2 with a 2.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 55:11 K:BB ratio in nine starts (59 ,0 IP). The Tigers are slashing .233/.294/.350/.644 against lefties and have little combined experience against Fried. They could fall behind early, as Olson has been scary under the lights (0-5 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.50 WHIP) and has been awful in June (0-3 with a 10 ERA, 43 and a WHIP of 2.18). Atlanta also has a superior bullpen. He ranks sixth in ERA, while Detroit ranks 18th.

At positive odds, the value of a bet on the Atlanta RL is too hard to pass up!

Prediction: Braves RL (-1.5)

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Betting Trends: The under is 17-7-3 in Atlanta interleague games and 36-26-2 when the Braves are betting favorites (19-15 as home favorites).

While Detroit has been involved in the most overs in MLB this season, the under has been a profitable bet in Atlanta’s games. With Fried on the mound, I think the Tigers will be below their scoring average, resulting in a low scoring game. He’ll last long enough to give his bullpen a rest advantage, which will have a particularly big impact coming into Sunday’s game.

Olson struggled this month, but he was lights out in May, posting a 0.64 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in five starts (28.0 IP). With three poor performances this month behind him, he could reach a milestone tomorrow. His expected ERA (xERA) matches his actual ERA, so more negative regression is not likely on the horizon. As long as he doesn’t break down early, he’ll pitch well enough to keep the Braves from blowing the game open.

That said, I prefer to bet on the under 8.5 in tomorrow night’s game.

Prediction: Under 8.5

Written by
Michael Briggs, “Michael Briggs”

I dove headfirst into sports betting because of an irresistible call to action. I’m a sports writer by training and earned my bachelor’s degree in journalism with a concentration in sports reporting from Michigan State in 2012. With my journalism background, I combine in-depth research with a keen eye for hidden value in order to generate consistent profits for my clients. In my free time, I enjoy talking “shop” with like-minded people. This allows me to see different angles and avoid pitfalls that derail my progress. In short, their insight and intuition either help or deter my decision-making process. Pitfalls to avoid in sports betting are crowd following, assumptions, gullibility and lack of accountability. A punter is never as hot or cold as his best and worst streaks. By dedicating yourself to acquiring knowledge, you will never feel like you know everything. At its core, sports betting is all about intuition. When you can predict which way the wind will blow, you’ll never feel caught in the current. Sometimes you have to be counterintuitive. The risk is in the mind of the beholder, but when you bet with me you will find that the reward justifies the bet!

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