State of the Ottawa Senators: Betting on the former Vezina Trophy winner

The Atlantic Division’s reintroduction after a busy offseason continues with the Ottawa Senators. The Senators are hoping to overtake the Buffalo Sabres in the standings with trades and free agent signings to improve their roster. Ottawa has kept the core of their team intact while retooling and trading quality talent in and out of the organization. They also have a new coach in Travis Green who they hope can take them to the next level.

The Senators needed a good offseason after a disappointing 2023-24 season. Like the Sabres, they were a good pick to make the playoffs, but instead finished seventh in the division. Goals weren’t as easy to come by and the goaltending was too inconsistent to be a real contender. Their -26 goal differential was the fourth-worst in the Eastern Conference.

Offseason goals

The building blocks of a solid team are in the Senators’ lineup. They have three good to very good centres in Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris and Shane Pinto. Their leader, Brady Tkachuk, is one of the most respected young players in the NHL. Jake Sanderson is a top young defenceman and Thomas Chabot continues to provide offence from the back end.

The problem is the supporting cast, with Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson shouldering the bulk of the work. Ottawa’s bottom six players provided little to no support and needed renewal. Paying Jakob Chychrun on top of Sanderson and Chabot was a bit excessive, even though Chychrun led all Senators defencemen in points.

The most important thing is that Ottawa needed to find a goaltending solution. Joonas Korpisalo is a decent goalie in the right environment, but the Senators are built to protect their goalie. Anton Forsberg is good intermittently, but he’s not a big starter.

Attackers

The Senators were expected to address their bottom-of-the-table forwards this summer and replace Vladimir Tarasenko, who was a victim of the trade deadline. As a result, they had to part ways with five bottom-of-the-table regulars and a depth forward. Veteran David Perron, a top-of-the-table contributor, and two bottom-of-the-table difference-makers make the move.

Perron immediately slots into the second line opposite Giroux. His shot is a perfect complement to Giroux’s passing, even though both players are getting older at 36.

Michael Amadio is a quality player who contributes on the third line and gives Ottawa a good opportunity to pair with one of its top three centers and up-and-coming talent Ridly Greig. Noah Gregor added energy and a high level of competition to the Toronto Maple Leafs’ fourth line last season, and he figures to do the same in Ottawa.

The forward group as a whole hasn’t seen any major upgrades, but a shuffle of pieces could be the right combination to round out the core. The jury is still out on the offseason additions, but it’s the Senators’ core that will be under the microscope.

Atlantic Division: State of play of the Montreal Canadiens; Sleeping during the offseason

Defense

Losing a versatile defenseman like Jakob Chychrun is a blow to the Senators, but they should be pleased with the steady defensive presence of Nick Jensen. Jensen is also consistently considered one of the league’s best penalty-killing defensemen, something Chychrun is not. Given that the trade to the Washington Capitals was considered a salary cap move, the Senators did well to improve in some areas in the trade.

Releasing Erik Brannstrom was a perplexing decision, as the defenseman has exceptional defensive numbers as a third-pairing contributor. He ended up signing with the Colorado Avalanche on a one-year, league-minimum deal, proving he wouldn’t have broken the bank if he had been dealt to the Senators.

Chabot’s health will be even more important to Ottawa in 2024-25, as he has dealt with injuries the past two seasons. Other defensemen, including Sanderson, need to improve offensively to replace Chychrun.

Goalie

If the Senators had any success in the offseason, it was acquiring a No. 1 goalie. The trade of the inconsistent Korpisalo for former Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark was one of the biggest deals of the offseason on paper.

If there’s any cause for concern, it’s because all of Boston’s goaltenders have had success in recent years. Ullmark’s numbers were solid behind a questionable defensive environment in Buffalo, then reached league-best levels with the Bruins. The Senators have tended to resemble those Sabres teams more than the Bruins over the past two seasons, though Green and the new coaching staff will undoubtedly try to change that.

Ullmark’s goal saves could be down, but even above-average goaltending could boost Ottawa’s point projection in the standings.

Must Read: Need for Speed: Sabres’ Fastest Skater Revealed

Line combinations

The general lineup combinations are pretty clear to start the season, but it’s hard to predict the exact matchups and usage Travis Green has in mind. The centers all bring different elements, so instead of mixing and matching wings up and down the lineup, it may take a revolving door of centers to find the right chemistry.

Here is the lineup planned for the opening night:

Attackers

Brady Tkachuk – Tim Stutzle – Drake Batherson

David Perron – Josh Norris – Claude Giroux

Ridly Greig – Shane Pinto – Michael Amadio

Boris Katchouk – Noah Gregor – Zack MacEwen

Defense

Jake Sanderson – Artem Zub

Thomas Chabot – Nick Jensen

Jacob Bernard-Docker – Travis Hamonic

Goalkeepers

Linus Ullmark (beginner)

Anton Forsberg (lifeguard)

Having four right-shot defensemen on the NHL roster will likely force someone to play on the opposite side. Tyler Kleven had success in Ottawa last season and could replace that left side on the third pairing instead. The Senators have a solid first line, quality top-four defense and top-tier goaltending, giving them the structure to contend for the playoffs.

Here’s what the power play might look like:

Power play 1

Brady Tkachuk

Drake Batherson – Josh Norris – Tim Stutzle

Thomas Chabot

Power Play 2

Ridley Greig

David Perron – Shane Pinto – Claude Giroux

Jake Sanderson

The Sabres can understand the drop in power-play production, as the Senators dropped from eighth in 2022-23 to last in 2024-25. The same pieces remain in place both years, so it’s more about strategy and execution than anything else. Ottawa could see a rebound in power-play goals, which would improve its standings prospects.

Ottawa’s revamped penalty killing system could look like this:

Penalty for murder 1

Claude Giroux – Ridly Greig

Jake Sanderson – Nick Jensen

Penalty for Murder 2

Noah Gregor – Boris Katchouk

Travis Hamonic – Artem Zub

The loss of Kelly and Joseph means there will be more emphasis on veteran Giroux as a key penalty-killer. The Senators could give some of their stars a spot on the unit to develop a more power-kill mentality.

Sabres Offseason: Kevyn Adams’ Grading and the Sabres’ Offseason

Projection

The PuckLuck model gave the Ottawa Senators an advantage last season, and the offseason they’ve had has only reinforced that trend. Ullmark’s projected GSAx is likely inflated by his run in Boston, which accounts for a large portion of the inflated projection. That said, the Senators are projected to finish with about 98 points in the standings, which would put them in a position to make the playoffs.

According to the model, Ottawa has a floor of 85 points and a ceiling of 110 points, which suggests an improvement over last season. They are projected to finish fourth in the Atlantic Division, seventh in the Eastern Conference and 10th in the NHL.

The Senators are also expected to move ahead of the Sabres in the standings, who are currently projected at 94 points. That four-point difference could mean the difference between a playoff berth or a loss. The most volatile factor is the goaltending position, where the Sabres are hoping Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen continues to shine and the Senators are hoping Ullmark can become a gritty Vezina contender again. Whoever gets the most quality play at that position could be the better team.

In a strong Atlantic Division, the Senators’ offseason moves could mean the difference between a playoff spot and another lost season. In what could be Claude Giroux’s final season, it may be time to get serious about that.