Houston Texans 2024 Fantasy Game Preview

Statistics 2023 (rank)

Points per game: 22.2 (13th)
Total yards per game: 342.4 (12th)
Pieces played per match: 63.7 (14th)
Pass attempts + sacks per game: 37.6 (12th)
EPA dropback per game: 0.06 (13th)
Rush attempts per game: 26.1 (20th)
Rush EPA per game: -0.16 (26th)

Coaching Staff

The 2023 Texans were like a dormant volcano coming to life. Shanified on offense by new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, they were franchised at quarterback by No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud. Stroud’s OROY exploits carried the Texans to the divisional round even though “PFF Bobby” never entirely blamed the offense on Stroud. Stroud averaged just 27 attempts over his final four regular-season starts, but the full-season chart tells a more reasonable story. Despite a passing rate in the low 12s above expectations, the Texans led the league in first-down passing percentage. Raw volume wasn’t where it should have been, but the Texans’ attempts were at least wisely sequenced. In response to Stroud’s success in his rookie test, the Texans loaded up their weapons ahead of what should be a faster, more spread-out sophomore attack.

Passing game

QB: CJ Stroud, Davis Mills
Editor-in-Chief: Nico Collins, John Metchie
Editor-in-Chief: Stefon Diggs, Noah Brown
WR: Tank Dell, Robert Woods
TE: Dalton Schultz, Brevin Jordan

It’s not just the Texans who have sky-high expectations for their second-year starter in 2024. Fantasy managers responded to Stroud finishing as the ninth-ranked QB in scoring average by making him the sixth quarterback off the board in the top summer ball drafts. That’s rich for a signal-caller who caught just 23 passes as a rookie while adding a modest 39/167/3 on the ground. It’s also a reasonable projection based on what we saw last fall and read this spring.

Indeed, the Texans acquired Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. Three-receiver teams should be the law of the land after the Texans ranked near the bottom of the league in their 11-man roster last season. The addition of Mixon in particular signals a more pass-friendly approach. Mixon has long been a hard worker early in the game who doubles as a magnet for checkdowns. You don’t acquire and extend him if you commit to the running game again. A phenomenal athlete, Stroud should probably run more, but even if he doesn’t, he has an upward trajectory toward a top-eight quarterback spot. The top five might be a bit ambitious.

The addition of Diggs naturally had fantasy managers wondering about the scope of targets in the Texans’ talent corps, but Nico Collins’ three-year, $72 million extension made it clear he’s still the No. 1 pick. A rare third-round, third-year breakout last season, Collins’ 1,297 yards were 370 more than he’s managed in 2021-22 combined. His eight touchdown receptions tied for eighth in the league. Those counting stats would have been even more impressive had Collins not missed two games with a calf issue. Advanced metrics indicate that was no fluke, with Tyreek Hill the only receiver averaging more yards per route carry in 2023. Hill, CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk were the only wide receivers with 20-plus receiving yards. Even if Diggs finds himself in the target competition, Collins’ dominant boundary game should make him a safe bet at the WR1/2 boundary. The only reason he falls so low is some managers’ preference for raw receiving numbers in the PPR era.

The intrigue comes behind Collins. Diggs is a superstar who hasn’t played like one in 2023. Tank Dell was a scintillating rookie who nonetheless played on fears about his small size when he suffered a gruesome leg injury in Week 13. We’ll start with Diggs, whose 70 yards per game were his fewest since 2018 in Minnesota. That number has dipped to 51 in his last 11 appearances. After passing for 100 yards five times in his first six games, Diggs has never reached 75 again. That suggests some sort of mysterious injury, but none has ever been announced. Diggs’ last notable ailment was a minor knee issue in August 2021. Ken Dorsey’s ouster as offensive coordinator likely didn’t help, but Diggs’ struggles had already been going on for a month before Joe Brady took over.

It was probably a combination of age and sadness, as 2023 was Diggs’ first campaign back in his 30s, as his frustrations with the Bills bubbled to the surface. It’s reasonable to expect some sort of rejuvenation from Diggs with his latest franchise quarterback, but Collins’ presence is a serious complication. Even if Diggs is in the midst of a renaissance, his WR1 days appear to be over, especially since Dell will be fighting for WR2 looks. Once a sure WR1 bet in fantasy, Diggs is now best viewed as a risk/reward WR2.

Dell knows the risk/reward. Listed as a small player at 5’10”, 165 pounds, Dell’s pre-draft profile was stellar, save for his slight frame. An explosive playmaking machine at the University of Houston, Dell was also a YAC dynamo. That was borne out before last year’s break, as 50% of Dell’s production came on receptions of 20-plus yards. At least according to Pro Football Focus’ stats, Dell didn’t excel after the catch as much as he did in college. That’s at least partly explained by a top-16, 14.4 ADOT. Dell was in the top-15 in yards per carry on the route. He did most of that on the outside, where Collins and Diggs also figure. Dell’s size makes him the most obvious candidate to kick inside the slot in 2024, though the truth is we don’t know how things might play out between Diggs and Dell. Tank’s youth and ability to make big plays in this burgeoning offense keep him in the top 24 despite the obvious downsides.

The Texans’ No. 4 receiver is TE Dalton Schultz, who parlayed a mediocre 2023 season (59/635/5) into a new three-year, $36 million contract. That underwhelming stat line was still good enough for a TE11 spot in average PPR points. The Texans’ lengthening of the skill corps isn’t good for Schultz’s 2024 prospects, but his contract reflects clear conviction from a team that’s going to be more pass-oriented. Schultz belongs in what has become his ancestral homeland on the TE1/2 borderline.

Schultz’s primary backup, Brevin Jordan, threw for a 76-yard touchdown in the Wild Card Round but only threw for 219 yards during the regular season. Somehow, Jordan is only 24 this month despite three full years in the league, but he has the allure of untapped potential. It’s just going to be very hard to capitalize on that in this loaded skill group. Jordan is on the watch list of 14 teams in the league.

Robert Woods and Noah Brown are forgotten but not gone. Both are guaranteed at least $1.5 million in 2024, but they are unlikely but not unheard-of candidates for the cut. Woods and Brown, who provide valuable depth because of their experience and complementary skills, will likely remain on the roster, but they are unlikely to become players in the 12-team league, even if one of the Texans’ “big three” gets injured.

Racing game

RB: Joe Mixon, Dameon Pierce, Dare Ogunbowale, Jawhar Johnson
OL (left to right): Laremy Tunsil, Kenyon Green, Juice Scruggs, Shaq Mason, Tytus Howard

The Texans made Mixon the surprise and unquestioned leader of their remodeled backfield. A replacement-level performer for the Bengals last season, Mixon averaged four yards per carry and was 0.02 yards more than expected. He was 50th in yards after contact and pedestrian as a tackle-breaker. He still produced as a PPR RB1 thanks to his 12 touchdowns and 52 receptions. Both totals were the second-highest of his career, despite missing Joe Burrow for seven games and being unable to play in the remainder of the game.

It’s easy to spot the repeat potential in Houston. The Texans are speeding up their offense and need someone to finish at the goal line for their up-and-coming attack. Mixon will continue to play between the 20, but his high-value touches keep him relevant as a fantasy RB2. You could argue he has a low-end RB1 floor.

Backup Dameon Pierce probably isn’t as bad as he looked in 2023 — we’re talking second-to-last in average rushing yards relative to expectation — but he doesn’t present as a particularly attractive emergency option in this newly elite offense. There’s no way Pierce will simply get the keys to the car if Mixon gets hurt. Dare Ogunbowale or rookie Jawhar Johnson would happily step in to help form a committee. Completely devoid of standalone value, Pierce isn’t an attractive insurance back.

Total wins

Sitting around the 9.5 after last season’s 10-7 finish, the Texans are quietly stuck in one of the league’s most competitive divisions. Everyone loves Houston and its comeback story, but Jacksonville and Indianapolis are potential playoff teams, while even Tennessee could be hot after an offseason spending spree. The media and fantasy managers tend to be too quick to crown rising teams, but it’s easy to see why in this case. The Texans have young and veteran building blocks on both sides of the ball. I want to be a naysayer and take the under, but there’s too much talent here for me to look the other way after last year’s ahead-of-schedule campaign. I like the Texans to go for the over and win this division.