Weather Alert Day: Tracking storms with damaging winds on July 4

BLOG:

The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day for the risk of severe storms on Independence Day. The severe storm window is from 12 noon Thursday to 12 midnight Friday.

SET UP:

Thursday will begin with showers and thunderstorms as a warm front moves north through the region. This front moves north, allowing even more heat, moisture, and ultimately instability to build up in the region.

It is still unclear exactly what will happen south of the warm front this afternoon, but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon. These could be heavy if they develop. A cold front will then approach from the west in the evening.

TIMED COORDINATION:

The rough timeline brings the cold front to the West’s doorstep between 7 and 9 p.m. As you can imagine, this could be just in time to interrupt Fourth of July celebrations. However, there is still a chance that the storms will stay away long enough for many to enjoy a dry evening, as the storms ahead of the cold front appear to be quite isolated. However, widespread storms will arrive along the cold front near Marshall, Sedalia and Warsaw between 7 and 9 p.m.

The line is expected to be strongest in the south before moving off to the east, near Hermann, Montgomery City and Rolla, between midnight and 2 a.m. The cold front is expected to bring storms to Columbia and Jefferson City between 8 and 10 p.m. As timing becomes more reliable, these areas will narrow.

EFFECTS:

Our main impacts are wind and hail with storms both ahead and along the front. There is a threat of tornadoes, but on the lower end of the spectrum. The intensity of the storms may depend somewhat on what unfolds earlier in the day, but overall both rounds are expected to make severe storms possible. Flooding may be a minor impact following heavy rains.

Make sure you can receive those severe weather alerts at night. The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather app is free and sends severe weather warnings and alerts, as well as lightning detections, to your current and preferred location.