This Houston Series: A Pretty Big Deal

So, maybe you’ve heard, but the All-Star break is next week. Today, the Texas Rangers open a three-game series in Houston against the Astros, the last series before the break.

I’m usually one of those people who say you shouldn’t get too excited about a game, a series, at least until the last month. It’s a long season, there’s a lot of games to play, a lot of things can happen, all that. The Rangers have 66 games left after the All-Star Break, and that’s a lot of games. So a series in the middle of the season, no matter what happens, it’s not a big deal.

Except this series looks like it’s going to be a major event. It looks like a series that could either put the Rangers back in a playoff spot or end the team’s playoff hopes.

As it stands, Seattle is in first place in the American League West, with a record of 52-43. Houston is in second place, two games back, at 49-44. The Rangers are seven games back of Seattle and five games back of Houston, at 44-49. In the wild-card race, the Rangers are nine games back of the Twins for WC2 (53-40), 7.5 games back of Boston (51-41) for WC3 and 6.5 games back of the Royals (51-43). The Rays and Tigers also have slight leads on the Rangers.

To qualify for the playoffs, the Rangers must not only get past the Rays and Tigers, but also get past Houston, Boston, Seattle, Kansas City and Minnesota, or get past Houston and Seattle. It’s tough, pretty tough, but not impossible.

In the American League West, while the Rangers and Astros face off in Houston, the Mariners play three games in Anaheim against the hapless Angels. Mariners fans are probably hoping that the Rangers win at least two of the three games and, ideally, sweep the Astros.

What’s the worst-case scenario for the Rangers this weekend? Well, if the Rangers get swept by the Astros and the Mariners sweep the Angels, Texas will find itself 10 games out of the division and eight games back of Houston for second place, and probably nine or 11 games out of the Wild Card race.

And in that case? Well, I wrote about what the Rangers would be prepared to do if something like that happened. Let the selling begin.

The best-case scenario would be for the Rangers to win, come back to within two games of Houston, close the gap in the wild-card race and maybe beat Seattle depending on how the M’s do in Anaheim. That would, I think, keep the Wolves at bay for at least a short while.

A 2-1 result helps, but not much. A 1-2 result is a problem.

I hate to say this is a must-win series, but if the Rangers don’t win at least 2 of 3 games, it’s going to raise the “sell” drumbeat and make it harder to argue that this team is headed in a direction that would make holding rather than selling wise.

Both teams are coming off a day off, and with four days off for the break that begins Monday, I expect the series to be handled with a sense of urgency by Bruce Bochy. Interestingly, looking at the odds, we see Andrew Heaney vs. Hunter Brown on Friday, Nathan Eovaldi vs. Spencer Arrighetti on Saturday, and “TBD” vs. Ronel Blanco on Sunday.

Sunday would normally be Jon Gray’s spot in the rotation, and he would start with extra rest. However, Max Scherzer could start Sunday with normal rest, given yesterday’s rest day. I would assume that if Scherzer comes out of his side session feeling good, he’ll start Sunday. No point keeping your Leo in the winter at this point.