Mapping 7,400 cross-border attacks between Israel and Lebanon | Conflict News

Hezbollah warned of domino effects throughout the Mediterranean if Israel escalates its conflict with Lebanon.

Tensions between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah group appear to be escalating as Israel’s war on Gaza has now lasted nearly nine months.

Since October 8, when Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel in solidarity with the Palestinian people, Israel has attacked the country almost four times as often, with more than 6,000 attacks along the 120-kilometer-long border.

Hezbollah, founded in 1982 to fight the Israeli invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon, says it will stop its attacks on Israel if its attacks on Gaza stop.

In 2006, the group fought a 34-day war that is widely seen as a strategic and military failure for Israel. Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, says the group does not seek a wider war, but with the support of its allies, is ready to counter Israeli aggression.

Some Israeli politicians have promised to expel Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, even if it means using force.

The attacks

According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), Israel, Hezbollah and other armed groups in Lebanon engaged in at least 7,400 attacks across the border between October 7, 2023 and June 21, 2024.

About 83 percent of these attacks were carried out by Israel. In total, there were 6,142 incidents in which at least 543 people were killed in Lebanon.

Hezbollah and other armed groups were responsible for 1,258 attacks that killed at least 21 Israelis.

In addition to Hezbollah, which bore the brunt of the hostilities, other prominent forces have also been involved in attacks on Israel. These include the Lebanese al-Fajr Forces and the Amal Movement, as well as Hamas’s Qassam Brigades and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s al-Quds Brigades, both of which are armed wings of Palestinian groups present in Lebanon.

These are the places in southern Lebanon that Israel has attacked most frequently:

• Aita al-Shaab – 300 attacks
• Ras al-Naqoura – 246 attacks
• Hula – 219 attacks
• Kfarchouba – 218 attacks
• Kfar Kila – 209 attacks

These locations in northern Israel were most frequently attacked by groups from Lebanon:

• Kiryat Shmona – 132 attacks
• Margaliyot – 91 attacks
• Metula – 72 attacks
• Shetula – 64 attacks
• Manara – 64 attacks

Israel’s Arsenal

Israel has the most advanced missiles in the Middle East – many of them domestically produced – but most of its precision missiles come from the United States.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), much of Israel’s capability consists of short-range tactical systems, including the Popeye, Extra and Gabriel missiles. Long-range missiles include the Jericho 2 and Jericho 3 ballistic missiles, with ranges of 1,500 to 3,500 and 4,800 to 6,500 kilometers, respectively.

In addition, although Israel does not officially admit it, it is believed to have at least 90 nuclear weapons.

To defend against incoming rockets and missiles, Israel uses three integrated air defense systems: Iron Dome (short range), David’s Sling (medium range) and Arrow (long range).

The Iron Dome was originally intended to provide city-sized protection against missiles with a range of between 4 and 70 kilometers (2.5 to 43 miles), but experts say that range has been expanded.

David’s Sling, manufactured by Israeli arms giant Rafael, can intercept rockets and missiles with a range of 40-300 km (25-186 miles). The Arrow series, led by the Arrow 3 interceptor, has an estimated range of up to 2,400 km (1,491 miles).

The Arsenal of Hezbollah

According to CSIS, Hezbollah is one of the most heavily armed non-state actors in the world and has an estimated 130,000 missile arsenal.

On October 19, the Israeli Institute for National Security Research published estimates of Hezbollah’s rocket and drone arsenal. Hezbollah has 40,000 Grad rockets with a range of 15 to 20 kilometers.

One level higher are 80,000 longer-range missiles, including the Fajr 3 and Fajr 5 ballistic missiles with a range of 100 km (62 miles).

Finally, there are about 30,000 Zelzal or Fateh-110 rockets with a range of 200 to 300 kilometers – the longest-range weapons in Hezbollah’s inventory that can reach southern Israel.