Braves vs Padres: Atlanta hopes Bryce Elder can help even the series

Well, a very oddly scheduled series with four games from Friday to Monday got even weirder on Saturday, as the game rained out and was moved to a Monday doubleheader. Bryce Elder was scheduled to start Saturday night, but will not start Sunday’s game (still the second game of the series).

Elder has been around replacement level this season and has pretty similar stats to what he had overall last season, which had high highs early in the season and low lows in the second half. From game to game this season, he got blown out in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, danced in the raindrops against Cleveland and had solid starts against the Marlins and Mets. The key for Bryce is avoiding walks, as he can’t afford to miss a lot of at-bats at the major league level, but he maintains a high ground ball rate. He can survive this high contact profile as long as he avoids giving away free baserunners, but once he starts racking up walks, he struggles to escape unscathed.

The Padres will counter with Yu Darvish, who is a much better pitcher than Bryce and will present a challenge for an Atlanta offense that continues to struggle. For what it’s worth, Darvish still struggled against Atlanta, with a 5.30 ERA through 7 matchups. Darvish throws a million types of pitches, with solid speed, which poses a pretty unique challenge to hitters compared to most pitchers. Of course, the Braves offense is currently in a valley, with a 92 wRC+ since April 13 and just 18th in the league in home runs this season. Of course, much of this is due to a combination of bad luck unique to Atlanta and changes in the ball that increased drag, turning many batted balls that might have been home runs in the past into outs or doubles.

It will be worth keeping an eye on Austin Riley as he has been dealing with a muscle issue alongside him and is expected to return to the lineup soon, but he has not committed to an actual timetable. Travis d’Arnaud is also expected to be on the bench after leaving Friday’s game feeling dizzy.

Hopefully Bryce can stay out of walks and the offense can wake up from its long slumber in what is pretty much a coin toss game depending on the betting markets.