Can they finally reach the Super Bowl?

There’s no shame in losing to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, but after doing so in the playoffs three of the last four seasons, the Buffalo Bills are looking to finally crack the AFC and reach the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993.

The Buffalo Bills’ projected 2024 stats once again put Sean McDermott’s team among the top contenders, so they’re running out of excuses — and years of Josh Allen at his peak — to explain why they can’t turn the corner and win the conference.

Buffalo Bills at a Glance

Diggs’ departure creates big hole at receiver

Of course, the Bills’ biggest move of the offseason was trading star receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans for a second-round pick. The move wasn’t necessarily a huge surprise, as Diggs was reportedly unhappy, but it’s still a big deal for a team like Buffalo to part ways with a four-time Pro Bowler while they’re still in “win-now” mode.

It’s fitting that the NFL schedule has Buffalo traveling to Houston to face the Texans in Week 5. Plus, Gabe Davis signed with Jacksonville, depriving the Bills of another weapon.

Buffalo went 11-6 in 2023, narrowly surpassing its 10.5 win total, which is unchanged for this season even without Diggs. The Bills also lost longtime defensive backs Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer, while also letting go of center Mitch Morse.

Buffalo will look a little different this season as the Bills try to win their fifth straight AFC East title. They added Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel at receiver, but neither player can match Diggs’ power, athleticism and playmaking ability. Buffalo also selected Florida State’s Keon Coleman in the second round, who should immediately slot in as a starter.

Defensively, the Bills are still a very solid unit that allowed the fourth-fewest points last season. The defensive secondary could be an issue as Micah Hyde is also a free agent (and could retire).

With all that turnover, there’s a chance Buffalo could slip in that department. But up front, the Bills should be really strong and are in a good position to win 11 or more games for the fifth straight year.

Allen must carry Buffalo

No 2024 Buffalo Bills stat matters more than what Allen does. The Bills will only go as far as Allen takes them, and while their Super Bowl odds have slipped to +1400 after closing at +900 last season, they are still a very good NFL team that should win their division again. From there, anything can happen in the playoffs.

He will need to cut down on interceptions, though, as he threw a career-high 18 interceptions in 2023 while throwing 29 touchdowns, down six NFL scores through the air.

He made up for it on the ground, rushing for 15 touchdowns, compared to seven in 2022. With Allen, it’s all about decision-making and that might be a bit more difficult without Diggs as a safety blanket. At +1400, they’re still a decent pick.

AFC Winning Odds Improved

Interestingly, the NFL betting odds for the Bills to win the AFC Championship are higher this season (+750) than they were in 2023 (+900). Naturally, the Chiefs are expected to take a step back after winning another Super Bowl, but it’s not like Mahomes, Travis Kelce, or Andy Reid are going anywhere.

The Bills are Buffalo’s biggest competition, along with the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills have the advantage of being in a weaker division, as the Dolphins haven’t shown the ability to play with bigs and the Jets are a huge surprise card. The Ravens are very dangerous, though, and the addition of Derrick Henry should make a big difference for Baltimore’s offense.

Bills expected to win AFC East title

As noted above, while the Bills aren’t guaranteed to win the AFC East for a fifth straight time, the Buffalo Bills’ expected stats in 2024 really do seem to indicate that they have a chance of doing so.

• However, they were a +120 favorite last season and are “only” +170 currently, with the Jets having a better chance in 2024 with a (for now) healthy Aaron Rodgers.

If he’s able to play a full season, the Bills’ streak could be in jeopardy. Buffalo is a virtually intact team that has dominated the division for nearly a semifinal, so the Bills should get the benefit of the doubt.

Buffalo’s good value for money wins out

Interestingly, the Bills are +120 to win 11 or more games and eclipse their over/under win total. That’s a very good bet even with Diggs and some defensive stalwarts gone. They were -140 on over 10.5 wins and +120 on under 10.5 wins in 2023 and now those odds are essentially reversed.

That’s partly due to Buffalo’s schedule, which looks solid. In addition to AFC East games, they’ll face the NFC West and AFC South.

Plus, their other three opponents are all Super Bowl contenders: the Chiefs, Lions, and Ravens. There aren’t many really bad teams on the list, other than maybe the Cardinals and Patriots.

Buffalo should be in the playoffs

Although their NFL playoff odds have worsened since they were originally published, the Bills are a safe playoff team at -165 to make it and +130 to miss.

• Last year they were even bigger favorites to do it (-250 to do it and +200 to miss), so with an improved AFC they’re not as safe.

It would be a huge surprise, however, if Buffalo were not selected.

Get the upper hand on Allen’s stats

An interesting bet for Buffalo over the entire season is for the Bills to lead the NFL in wins (+1500). They are tied with the Eagles and Dolphins for the eighth-worst odds, but at this price, it’s not a bad bet to take. Buffalo has an elite quarterback and a talented team, so a 14-3 or 13-4 record isn’t completely out of the question.

Allen’s over/under numbers are pretty low considering how big his 2023 season will be.

• His total passing yards are 3,700.5 yards (-110 both ways) and his passing touchdowns are 27.5 (+110 over and -130 under).

He’s thrown for over 4,200 yards and 29 or more touchdowns in each of his four seasons, so overs are good bets. If he were to get injured and miss a few NFL games, however, those lofty numbers might not be attainable. To his credit, Allen is a model of durability, playing 16 or more games every year since 2019.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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