3 Historical Comparisons for Houston Rockets Rookie Reed Sheppard

Some NBA prospects are easier to predict than others. Certain skills and physical characteristics can make a profile complicated. Who will that player be?

That’s what the Houston Rockets are wondering about Reed Sheppard. He was the third pick in the last NBA draft. However, it’s still unclear what Sheppard will become.

We know he’s a historically excellent shooter. Sheppard shot 52.5 percent from long range for Kentucky last season. He also averaged a remarkable 2.5 steals per game.

Does that mean he’ll be a strong defender? It’s hard to say, Sheppard is a small guard. There’s also some question as to whether he’ll be a top-tier point guard at the NBA level.

So it is useful to give a range of possible outcomes for Sheppard. That is what we will do here. Here is a comparison of the floor, median and ceiling outcomes for Sheppard.

Warning: Comparisons will not be perfect.

Hield is known for being a weak defender. Sheppard won’t be. He’s going to try whether he succeeds or not.

Let’s say that, despite his efforts, Sheppard fails to become a positive defender. Let’s also say that he’s not very good at handling the ball – remember, this is a ground comparison. He can always be Buddy Hield.

It could have been worse. Sheppard is likely to have enormous three-point gravity. He will warp defenses simply by standing behind the line. Still, the Rockets are hoping he can do more than that.

Size can be surprisingly controversial in the NBA.

Sheppard is generally considered a small guard. He stands at 6’3″, which isn’t all that small: he’s only an inch shorter than Derrick White. Doesn’t it seem like Sheppard is an inch shorter than White?

Regardless, this is another flawed comparison. Sheppard should be a better shooter than White in his prime, and he likely won’t be on White’s level on defense. Overall, we’re just saying that Sheppard could have a similar two-way impact to White.

More specifically, we’re saying he can be a guard in White’s prototype. He plays mostly off the ball but is capable of attacking in closeout. Sheppard can fill that role even if he doesn’t develop much as a playmaker.

What if he does?

We thought about Steve Nash. Let’s be honest: Nash is one of the best offensive players in NBA history. Not to say Sheppard can’t reach that level, but we try to keep our feet on the ground.

Price remains an ambitious target. In 1992-93, Price averaged 18.2 points and 8.0 assists per game while shooting 41.6 percent from long range. Price was ahead of his time, using his elite shooting and game sense to become a premier point guard.

This is the best possible scenario for Sheppard. He’s a smart passer, but he needs to tighten up his control. If he can…

Who knows what it could be?