Heat Alert for July 4th! Latest on Hurricane Beryl

Forecast for tonight

It will be muggy and humid tonight! Temperatures will struggle to drop, with overnight lows only dropping to below 80 degrees.

Forecast for July 4th

July 4th will be a hot day! Temperatures will reach nearly 100 degrees, but humidity will push temperatures to 110 degrees! The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for Southeast Texas until 7 p.m. Stay hydrated!

Fortunately, for the first time in two years, there is no fire ban in effect in Southeast Texas on the 4th of July! Be sure to check with your county before setting off fireworks.

Official track of Hurricane Beryl:

The National Hurricane Center predicts Beryl will make landfall in the Yucatan by Friday morning.

After crossing the Yucatan, Beryl will lose strength. It will then head towards the Bay of Campeche where it is expected to regain strength and become a hurricane before making landfall on Sunday.

Whichever path Beryl takes, the risk of rip currents will be high throughout the weekend.

What to Expect in Southeast Texas:

We will have a better idea of ​​Beryl’s track over the next 24 hours. The consensus so far is that we will see Beryl moving toward northern Mexico or extreme southern Texas by Sunday night. If this track holds, the heaviest rain will fall west and south of Houston. Through Saturday, we will only see coastal impacts. People who saw coastal flooding with Alberto can certainly expect to see it again. We will have large waves and swells as well as a high risk of rip currents. It is not until Sunday that we could see outer rain bands and stronger winds (but check back in a few days for a more updated forecast).

Landing of the American model:

Below is the US model that has been tweaked to align more closely with the EURO and NHC positioning in far northern Mexico on Sunday. The only thing they are not consistent with is the timing, the US model has it onshore on Sunday morning and the Euro on Sunday night (12 hour time difference).

European landing model:

In contrast, the European model has Beryl heading a little further south into the Gulf, down the Yucatan, and remaining weaker as a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane before making landfall in northern Mexico, just south of Brownsville. That would mean less direct impact on Houston and our coastline, other than some coastal flooding and minor storm surge.

10 day forecast:

The closer Beryl gets to southeast Texas, the more rain we will get. The further south Beryl moves, the lower our impacts will be. Right now, I’m looking at a 40% chance of tropical rain on Sunday and a 50% chance on Monday, with a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday and Tuesday as well.