NFL teams with multiple Star Fantasy wideouts are rare

The evolution of fantasy football has seen the wide receiver position gain added value in recent seasons. This is evident in the early average draft position (ADP) data, as seven of the top 10 players selected in the 2024 draft are spreads. This, of course, increased the value (and hype) of this position. This, however, begs the question: how much is too much? After all, there’s only one soccer ball, right? There are only so many goals a team can spread around, so sometimes the real value comes down to simple math.

This is important when we look at NFL teams that have multiple wide receivers who should make a fantasy impact. Heading into 2024, there are several teams with what I would call a talented but crowded receiver room that has some fantasy question marks.

The first team that comes to mind is the Houston Texans, with Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell all ranked in the top 36. The Chicago Bears are in the same boat, as the team includes DJ Moore , Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. . The Seattle Seahawks also have three solid receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the Miami Dolphins added Odell Beckham Jr. alongside starters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

There is no shortage of other teams with three or more receivers who will also compete for targets in training camp and the preseason. The Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots all fall into this category.

This is going to spark a lot of speculation as to who will win the most goals and ultimately have the biggest fantasy impact. But looking back at the past (as you know I like to do), I’ve discovered that more often than not, it can be nearly impossible for an offense to boast two or more consistently productive wide receivers at the same time and at during the same season.

In fact, you’ll be shocked by the data I’ve found over the past 20 years.

For a receiver to qualify, he must average at least 14 PPR points per game (low WR2 level in 2023) and play at least eight games in a given season. Let’s first take a look at offenses that fielded three receivers who scored at least 14 points in the same statistical campaign.

Notes: Season-long points per game averages and results among WRs are listed first. When one or more WRs have played in less than a full season, the average points per game in games where all three were active is listed under “ALL”.

2004 Indianapolis Colts
Marvin Harrison: 17.8 (WR5)
Reggie Wayne: 16.9 (WR9)
Brandon Stokley: 14.6 (WR17)

Denver Broncos 2013
Demaryius Thomas 18.2 (WR1) – ALL 19.4
Eric Decker 16.8 (WR9) – ALL 16.7
Wes Welker 16.1 (WR21 – 13 games) – ALL 16

Los Angeles Rams 2018
Cooper Kupp 16.9 (WR51 – 8 games) – ALL 16.1
Robert Woods 16.6 (WR11) – ALL 16.4
Brandin Cooks 15.2 (WR13) – ALL 19.8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2020
Chris Godwin 15.9 (WR31 – 12 games) – ALL 15.8
Mike Evans 15.5 (WR11) – ALL 17.4
Antonio Brown 14.6 (WR65 – 8 games) – ALL 14.6

Carolina Panthers 2020
Curtis Samuel 14.1 (WR27 – 15 games) – ALL 14.1
DJ Moore 14.1 (WR28 – 15 games) – ALL 14.1
Robbie Anderson 14.0 (WR29) – ALL 13.4

There were only five teams in 20 years of data encompassing 32 NFL teams (or 640 opportunities) where an offense fielded three receivers averaging at least 14 points. In three of those cases, it took all-time great quarterbacks (Peyton Manning – 2004, 2013 and Tom Brady – 2020) to accomplish this feat. And, in the case of the 2020 Panthers, none of their three wide receivers who scored at least 14 points finished above WR27.

So, even with the talent on their rosters, this trend doesn’t bode well for the Texans, Bears, Seahawks (and to a lesser extent, Dolphins) who have three receivers who are regular Fantasy starters. Digging a little deeper, 14 of the 32 teams failed to produce more than two seasons where his offense had two lapses averaging over 14 points in the same calendar year.

Here’s a look at each team and how many seasons they had at least two wide receivers averaging 14 or more fantasy points (min. eight games).

Six seasons:
Steelers

Five seasons:
Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Falcons, Packers, Vikings

Four Seasons:
Buccaneers, Lions, Rams

Three seasons:
Colts, Cowboys, Eagles, Patriots

Two seasons:
Dolphins, Raiders, Seahawks, Texans

A season :
49ers, Bears, Chargers, Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Panthers, Saints, Titans

No seasons:
Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, Ravens

Some of these results are not surprising, since the Steelers had Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson. The Falcons fielded greats like Julio Jones, Roddy White and Calvin Ridley (maybe Drake London joins the list), and the Bengals had Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Terrell Owens, AJ Green, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Broncos have also had five seasons with multiple gaps of 14 points or more, but that hasn’t happened since 2018.

What’s surprising is the bottom half, where the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders and Ravens have never had two receivers averaging 14 points or more. Keep that in mind when recruiting Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, Xavier Worthy, Jahan Dotson, and anyone not named Zay Flowers to Baltimore (and he didn’t average 14 points per game last season). Sorry, all you Rashod Bateman truthers!

The data I’ve compiled tells that in most cases (since 2004), an NFL team cannot support three players who average at least 14 points per game.

Going even further, 44 percent of teams have had one or fewer such gaps in a single season over the past 20 years. So, in the case of teams like the Bills, Panthers, Browns, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers and Patriots, who all have major questions about their team depth, I Wouldn’t expect to find more than one. catcher on every team who becomes a reliable and productive fantasy starter for the entire season.