Can the Buffalo Bills win a Super Bowl again?

Despite consistent success in recent years, the Buffalo Bills have yet to reach the NFL’s biggest event. Now, after a major roster shakeup this past offseason, many believe their Super Bowl window has already closed.

With star quarterback Josh Allen still only 20 years old, this statement may seem ridiculous, but it bears examination. Many elite relief pitchers have found themselves on weak teams in the middle of their careers.

The question then becomes: Is Allen one of them? Has Buffalo ruined its roster beyond the point of no return, or will it find its way back to the playoffs like it has year after year?

The increased level of competition within the AFC only adds to this debate. Buffalo will have to face an avalanche of promising teams, as well as the dominant Kansas City Chiefs. Between that and their key losses, is it too much to handle?

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The pessimistic vision

Major changes can be too much to overcome

Before free agency, the Bills were forced to part ways with several veterans to improve their financial situation. They also lost their top two receivers to free agency and a massive trade.

The Stefon Diggs trade seemed inevitable for some time, with both sides on completely different pages. Buffalo decided to send him to the Houston Texans, strengthening a formidable opponent in their own conference.

It wasn’t the only time the Bills helped an AFC rival at receiver, as they traded up with the Chiefs on draft night. That allowed Kansas City to select Xavier Worthy, who many believe has the opportunity to be their top receiver this season.

Beyond the Chiefs, there are plenty of other AFC teams looking to capitalize on their situation and make a Super Bowl appearance. The Baltimore Ravens nearly did it, while the Texans showed considerable improvement in their first season under C.J. Stroud.

Teams like the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets are hoping to make headlines with what they hope are healthy, top-tier quarterbacks. Other contenders, like the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars, could also make a leap forward this year.

All of which is to say that the AFC is no picnic. The days of being able to envision a Buffalo-Kansas City game before the season even started are long gone, and both teams will have to fight to get back into it at the end of the season.

If the Bills can’t adapt and weather the roster shakeup, it’s hard to imagine they’ll go very far this year. A top-two finish in their division isn’t guaranteed, which means a top-two finish in the AFC will be daunting.

The optimistic vision

Reliable numbers can be relied upon to remain consistent

It’s hard to bet on change in the NFL. Often, a team that is seen as an up-and-comer will disappoint and remain at the bottom of the standings. Conversely, teams that are expected to fall will often be surprised and continue to perform.

While the outlook is certainly worse than in recent years, the Bills have yet to prove they are anything other than a title contender. Allen is still at the top of his game, and Sean McDermott is ready to enter his eighth season as Buffalo’s head coach after proving he is one of the best in the NFL.

Beyond the faces on the team, there’s still plenty of talent scattered throughout the rest of the roster. James Cook is one of the best young running backs in the NFL, and tight end Dalton Kincaid had some impressive moments in his rookie season after being selected in the first round of the 2023 draft.

Buffalo’s offensive line is expected to be one of the best in the league, which should ideally give Allen plenty of time to throw to his new targets, which include Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Keon Coleman (33rd overall pick).

Coleman should be a favorable weapon for Allen, as his high-jumping abilities pair perfectly with Allen’s propensity to throw the ball downfield. Coleman’s selection came after a double trade, which allowed them to gain more draft capital.

The offseason losses have taken a bigger toll on the defensive side of the ball, but there are still some big names there. AJ Epenesa, Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau headline a solid defensive line, while Rasul Douglas and Taron Johnson will look to step up in the secondary.

The roster certainly isn’t the same as last year’s, but the pieces needed to succeed are still in place. If they’re put in place properly before the season, Buffalo might not waste a second in its quest for a Super Bowl berth.

The verdict

Can Buffalo still compete?

It’s entirely possible that Buffalo could stumble after so much change, but we shouldn’t expect much. Allen and McDermott, while failing to reach the ultimate stage of football, have consistently put this team in a position to compete. Until we see otherwise, it would be bold to expect otherwise.

Even though the Bills aren’t showing any signs of competing at a high level this season, that doesn’t mean their window of opportunity is completely closed. Just as their roster was reshaped this summer, that could happen again in the future.

In reality, it would take a lot for Buffalo to no longer be a Super Bowl contender. The outlook may temporarily look bleak, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to reset everything.

As long as Allen continues to perform at a high level, the Bills will have a chance to win the ultimate prize. While they may not be at the same level, Patrick Mahomes recently proved that superstar quarterbacks can find success no matter who is around them. Performance may fluctuate, but Buffalo doesn’t need to panic just yet.

Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.

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