Young: Bats may be bad, but stacked arms are Atlanta’s best chance

Brian Snitker said the only thing he could really say halfway through what has been a shocking 2024 season so far for the Atlanta Braves.

When asked about the playoffs, the veteran manager insisted (as much as he could) that the team intended to win the National League East. The World Series title remains the primary objective.

I mean, what was he supposed to say? “My team, plagued by injuries and slumps, is exactly where we want to be?” Or maybe, “Division titles are overrated. The wild card is the way to go, and we’re all in.”

While Snitker didn’t say that last part, that’s likely the reality at this point, and given the issues that have plagued the six-time defending NL East champions — including devastating season-ending injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider — things could be a lot worse.

When Atlanta’s 162-game regular season reached its midpoint last weekend (the midseason break for the All-Star Game is still two weeks away), the Braves were 46-35, seven games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East but three games ahead of the San Diego Padres for the first National League wild-card spot. Six teams were within a game and a half of the St. Louis Cardinals for the third and final wild card.

It’s not ideal, but wild-card teams have done pretty well in the MLB postseason, especially lately. Both of last year’s World Series teams came out of that round. The Phillies have been a wild-card team the last two years, reaching the World Series in 2022 and the NL Championship Series last year before losing to the Arizona Diamondbacks. In total, six wild-card teams have made the World Series since 2012, all three of which have won the tournament.

Rounding out this list, though, is that things need to change soon in Cobb County. The Braves we’ve seen over the past two months have no chance of making a deep playoff run. Just look at some stats from 2023 and so far this season.

As a team, the 2023 Braves are hitting .276 with a .344 on-base percentage and a .501 slugging percentage, which gives them an on-base-plus-slugging percentage of .845. Their numbers this season are .243, .308, .401 and .710.

Yes, Acuña and his NL MVP numbers from last year are gone, but every player on the roster other than Marcell Ozuna has regressed (we can’t count Jarred Kelenic, who was traded by the Seattle Mariners in December and wasn’t part of Atlanta’s monstrous offense last season).

Last year, the worst batting average among Atlanta’s regulars was Sean Murphy (.251), but he had a .365 on-base percentage and a .478 slugging percentage. The latter number would put him second behind Ozuna this year, and third behind Ozuna and Ozzie Albies (who was hitting a solid .254 heading into Tuesday).

Read that again.

Austin Riley was hitting .250 heading into Tuesday, which is Michael Harris II’s batting rate before he was sidelined by a hamstring injury since mid-June. Matt Olson, who hit 54 homers and drove in 139 runs (and a .993 OPS) last year, was hitting .242. Orlando Arcia, an MLB All-Star last summer, is hitting .211, with Murphy at .217 and Adam Duvall, Acuña’s replacement in right field, hitting (if you can call it that) .169.

This is not a small sample, and it begs the question: At what point should we be concerned about the quality of education these students are receiving?

Are Pedro Cerrano and Jobu available for a bat cleaning? What is Kelly Leak doing these days?

Anyway, all this to say… we need more launchers.

Yes, the bats are bad, but the biggest problem for a good playoff run (heck, even getting there) is building teams. Hear me out.

If the playoffs started today, a big trio of left-handers Max Fried and Chris Sale and right-hander Reynaldo Lopez would be World Series-worthy.

The problem is that half the season is ahead of us and these three have already or will soon eclipse last year’s innings total: Fried has pitched 96 innings this year after pitching just 78 last year; Sale, with 94 innings, is just nine shy of last year; Lopez has already pitched 13 more innings this year than he did last year. Reliable right-hander Charlie Morton is hopefully ready to go, but hopefully not as a Game 1 or 2 starter.

The other starters — Bryce Elder, Spencer Schwellenbach et al. — aren’t expected to be in the running for the playoffs, though they’ll have to help the Braves get there for now.

There are some good candidates to trade, but Atlanta’s best assets are in the lower minor leagues and have less current value. Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos may have to dismantle an already weak farm system to make improvements.

The Chicago White Sox will be big sellers and have the best starting pitcher on the market in Garrett Crochet. He has been excellent, especially of late, with 141 strikeouts in 18 starts and is under contract through 2026. However, two things are working against him. For one, he is coming off Tommy John surgery in 2022, which limits his innings, and for another, the Los Angeles Dodgers are reportedly interested.

Former Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty is a more realistic candidate. He’s now with the Detroit Tigers, with a 3.24 ERA in 15 starts and striking out eight of three batters for every walk he allows.

The White Sox also have cheaper pitchers Michael Kopech and Erick Fedde at their disposal, while Yusei Kikuchi of the Toronto Blue Jays, Tyler Anderson of the Los Angeles Angels and Cal Quantrill of the Colorado Rockies would also be good choices.

The other option for Atlanta is to make do with what it has and hope for the best. But, as Snitker said, that’s not the Braves’ way.

Contact Lindsey Young at [email protected].