FIRST ALARM WEATHER DAY | What’s next?

(WSAZ) – After this morning’s storms, the atmosphere will begin to recover in the afternoon, so we can expect much calmer conditions for much of the day today. However, this evening a new low pressure system to the southwest along with a warm front to the south will begin to move northward, causing storms capable of producing hail or strong winds in excess of 60 miles per hour during the evening hours today.

However, the prognosis is complex. Storms over southern parts of Kentucky and Tennessee will develop what is known as an “outflow.”

This cools the lower layers of the atmosphere and reduces the amount of energy and instability on the Earth’s surface, as the boundary between this air mass and the entire environment shifts northward.

A new storm is expected to develop along this boundary later this evening in Ohio. Any resulting storm could produce hail the size of a half dollar or ping pong ball and gusty winds of up to 60 miles per hour.

Meanwhile, a pulse moving through the southern portions of the area (down toward Pikeville) will move through the region during the early afternoon hours, driving some showers and storms across the southern portions of the region (near Pikeville).

This will also help push this runoff further north. So what will happen within this outflowing air mass? As mentioned, this will reflect more stable air and less energy available for storms. We therefore expect the risk of severe weather to be significantly reduced in the areas between US-460 and I-64/Ohio River towards the evening. The risk mainly exists north and south of the border. The undisturbed environment means there is no threat of tornadoes, but hail and damaging winds are likely for the region during the afternoon.

The continued flow of energy during the overnight hours will result in some showers and storms, albeit under strict limits, from the overnight hours of tonight into the morning hours of tomorrow. The above-mentioned rain will ease by late morning, bringing in some sunshine in the early afternoon hours. This sunshine will once again allow the region to see the development of instability and moderate thunderstorm energy, along with gusty winds aloft to help organize the storms.

This environment will exist along and ahead of a passing cold front, so areas along and east of I-77 will have a chance of major severe weather. Outside of Grantsville, Sutton, Fayetteville, Summersville, Clay and Spencer, the severe storm threat will end across much of the region tomorrow.

Flooding also remains a concern. Another cold front moving through on Friday will result in morning showers, with showers in the mountains throughout the day on Friday. A front will move through the region again on Saturday, so we’ll do it again here. Finally, high pressure will prevail on Sunday, ensuring dry and mostly sunny conditions for the day. However, due to the numerous cold fronts, high temperatures will be difficult to reach the 70s, with upper 60s common on Saturday and Sunday. High pressure will continue to prevail across the region on Monday and another bout of rain is expected on Tuesday. Highs will also slowly recover into the mid and upper 70s, with southerly winds developing again across the region. Stay informed today and receive alerts in a variety of ways.

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