The Braves travel to Milwaukee to continue their road trip against the Brewers

The Atlanta Braves will continue their road trip Monday with a three-game series against the National League Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers. The Braves split a four-game series in New York against the Mets to open the trip, snapping a six-game losing streak. Atlanta currently holds a one-game lead over the San Diego Padres in the wild-card standings and a 1.5-game lead over the Mets for the final National League playoff spot.

The Braves continue to deal with multiple injuries. Reynaldo López left Sunday’s game with a sore forearm and is scheduled to return to Atlanta for an MRI. Atlanta is already without Max Fried, who could be close to returning. Despite the injuries and the tight race for the wild card, the Braves continue to stick to their plan to give their starting rotation more rest. Grant Holmes will make his first career start in Monday’s game. Atlanta hasn’t named a starter for Tuesday, but will push Chris Sale back to Wednesday and give him an extra day of rest.

Atlanta’s offense is also dealing with a number of injuries, but its hitters have started to come alive in New York. The Braves hit four home runs in Sunday’s win over the Mets and now have 10 in their last three games. Matt Olson, who was in a deep slump earlier this month, has hit safely in five straight games. He homered again in Sunday’s win, marking the first time this season he’s hit home runs in back-to-back games.

The Brewers enter the series with a 60-45 record and a six-game lead in the National League Central over the St. Louis Cardinals. Despite that commanding lead, the Brewers are just 10-11 in July. They avoided a home sweep with a 6-2 win over the Marlins on Sunday.

The Brewers are also dealing with injury issues. Christian Yelich was having his best season in Milwaukee before being placed on injured reserve with a back issue. They did get Devin Williams back on Sunday. He made his season debut with a scoreless inning in the win over Miami.

Overall, the Brewers are hitting well (10th in wRC+) and playing pretty good defense, ranking fifth in position player fWAR. They’ve actually had a lot of pitching issues, ranking just 25th in pitcher fWAR (25th rotation, 16th bullpen). A top-ten position player unit and a bottom-ten pitching unit don’t seem like they’re going to translate into the sixth-best record in the major leagues, and, unsurprisingly, they have just the ninth-best baserunning record in MLB—half a game behind the Braves, despite a 3.5-game lead over them in the actual standings. Another thing worth noting is that the Brewers have consistently and substantially outperformed their xwOBA all year—their xwOBA itself is middle-of-the-pack, but they’ve gotten good value for their money.

While the hitters have regressed in July, the real problem is that their pitching situation has gotten even worse; they entered Sunday’s game as one of three teams with below-replacement-level pitching since July 1.

The roster’s position players look pretty good overall: Willy Adames is having a great year, while Yelich, former Brave William Contreras, Joey Ortiz, and Brice Turang all join him with at least 2.0 fWAR. Talented youngsters Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins, and Sal Frelick are also having above-average years, though there’s certainly some xwOBA overperformance. Rhyskins has been their only real drag, as a 105 wRC+ at first base isn’t really enough.

As for the pitchers, well, uh… Freddy Peralta is having a great year and Trevor Megill is dominating the bullpen (albeit with an inconsistent xFIP). Beyond that, it’s been a bit of a struggle – the Brewers have already used 16 different starting pitchers (though many have been essentially openers or the first guy in a game out of the bullpen). Some guys have done a good job of holding down the fort, like Tobias Myers, while others, like Colin Rea, have mostly just eaten innings.

Monday, July 29, 8:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)

Grant Holmes (10 walks, 23.1 innings pitched, 23.6 strikeout percentage, 5.6 walk percentage, 2.70 ERA, 2.12 FIP)

Right-hander Grant Holmes will make his first career major league start for the Braves in the series opener on Monday. With Max Fried injured, Atlanta currently has just four starters on its roster. Holmes, a first-round pick in 2014, made his major league debut in June and appeared in 10 games while posting a 2.70 ERA and 2.12 save percentage. He played as a reliever the last few seasons in the minor leagues, but the Braves extended him to Gwinnett and he was part of the Triple-A rotation before his recall.

Colin Rea (20 goals, 17 runs, 110.0 innings, 18.2 strikeouts, 7.1 walk percentage, 3.60 ERA, 4.31 earned runs batted in)

The Brewers will select right-hander Colin Rea for Monday’s opener. Rea has been a valuable innings-eater for Milwaukee’s rotation. He struck out eight batters in five scoreless innings in his last start against the Cubs, and has three dominant outings and just one blowout so far in July, a big improvement over his previous months. Rea had a strange outing against Atlanta last year, going 8-2 with a great K/BB ratio but also allowing two homers and five total runs charged against him in five innings of work. He also had a couple of good outings against the Braves in 2015 and 2016, but that’s not really relevant these days.

Tuesday, July 30, 8:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)

To be determined

Brian Snitker said Sunday that the Braves will move all players back in the rotation for one day to get extra rest. He declined to elaborate on who might start Tuesday, saying only that they’ll see how things go Monday. Bryce Elder was removed from his scheduled start for Gwinnett on Sunday and appears to be an option.

To be determined

The Brewers have yet to announce their pitching plans for Tuesday’s game. Baseball in 2024, folks!

Wednesday, July 31, 2:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)

Chris Sale (19 GS, 117.1 IP, 32.7% K, 5.5% BB, 2.68 ERA, 2.29 FIP)

Left-hander Chris Sale will make his 20th start of the season for the Braves in the series finale on Wednesday. Sale has been nothing short of magnificent and should be on the National League Cy Young Award contender list. While he has been passed by George Kirby and is third in starting pitcher fWAR, it is worth noting that Kirby has three starts on him at this point, and Garrett Crochet has two. Atlanta has done its best to limit Sale’s innings. He made his first start since the All-Star break on July 25 in New York and was spectacular again, allowing two runs and nine strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings, his best total of the season.

Freddy Peralta (21 GS, 114.1 IP, 29.5% K, 8.9% BB, 3.94 ERA, 3.82 FIP)

Freddy Peralta will be the other half of Wednesday’s marquee pitching matchup. Peralta enters the game among the league leaders in strikeout percentage. He’ll be looking to rebound from a less-than-stellar outing last time out where he allowed five runs (three earned) and five walks in 5 1/3 innings against the Marlins. Peralta has a 4.43 ERA and 5.16 FIP in four starts in July and has allowed four home runs in that span. In fact, he’s gotten worse on a FIP and xFIP basis every month so far. Peralta has appeared in six career games against the Braves where he has a 4.45 ERA, 3.49 FIP and 4.05 xFIP in 28 1/3 innings. The Braves knocked him out last year, but he’s dominated them in 2022 and 2021.