Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds, Picks and Predictions

THE Houston Astros (42-41) and Toronto Blue Jays (38-45) begins a 4-game series on Monday. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze the lines from BetMGM Sportsbook around Astros vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season Series: Astros lead 2-1

The Blue Jays host the Astros on Canada Day, which is roughly equivalent to July 4 in the United States.

Despite a spirited comeback in front of a sellout crowd, Toronto suffered a 7-6 loss to the Boston Red Sox last season on Canada Day as the Over (9) conceded.

In 2022, the Jays beat the Tampa Bay Rays 9-2 in Canada Day, again thanks to the Over (9). In 2021, the Seattle Mariners manhandled the Jays 7-2, Toronto failing to win despite its status as big favorite (-242) thanks to the Under (10).

The Jays did not play on Canada Day in 2020 due to the global COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019, Toronto crushed the Kansas City Royals as a moderate favorite (-151) thanks to the Over (9), but lost 9-1 to the Detroit Tigers in 2018 on Canada Day, yet another times thanks to the Over (9).

Toronto is just 2-5 in the last 7 Canada Day appearances, with a 4-1 record in the last 5 Holiday games for the Jays.

The Blue Jays have lost 2 of the last 3 home games against the New York Yankees after opening the 4-game series with a 9-2 victory on Thursday. Toronto has won 3 of the last 5 games, and the Over is on a 7-0 streak with a 10-2-1 record in the last 13 outings.

Astros to Blue Jays’ projected starters

RHP Brown Hunter against RHP Yariel Rodriguez

Brown (5-5, 4.37 ERA) is making his 16th start and 17th appearance. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 80 1/3 IP.

• Last Start: Won, 6 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K in a 5-2 home win over the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday
• 2024 road splits: 2-3, 5.87 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.70 WHIP, .313 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 4 HR, 11 BB, 21 K in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance
• June Splits: 4-0, 1.16 ERA (31 IP, 4 ER), 0.94 WHIP, .189 OBA, 3 HR, 8 BB, 36 K in 4 starts
• Career vs. Blue Jays: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER 3 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in a 5-1 road loss on June 6, 2023, in only one career start vs. the Jays

Rodriguez (0-2, 5.94 ERA) is making his 6th start. He has a 1.92 WHIP, 5.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 16 2/3 IP.

• Last Start: Loss, 1 1/3 IP, 4 ER (5 R), 2 H, 3 BB, 1 K in a 7-1 road loss to the Cleveland Guardians on June 21
• 2024 Home Splits: 0-0, 3.68 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 2.05 WHIP, .333 OBA, 1 HR, 5 BB, 7 K in 2 starts
• I’ve never faced Astros before

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Astros vs Blue Jays odds

Powered by BetMGM Sportsbook; Go to the USA TODAY Sports Sports Betting Scores & Odds hub for a complete list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:03 p.m. ET.

• Money Line (ML): Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Blue Jays +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
• Running Line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+115) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-140)
• More/Less (Y/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Astros at Blue Jays Picks and Predictions

Prediction

Astros 7, Blue Jays 3

Money line

THE ASTROS (-145) are worth checking out as they look to spoil Canada Day festivities in front of what will likely be a sold-out crowd at T-Dot.

The Blue Jays (+120) have struggled in recent seasons on Canada Day, winning just twice in the last seven appearances on Canada Day. Now, Toronto must face an in-form Brown, who is on a four-game winning streak, with his last loss dating back to May 22.

Running Line/Against the Spread

THE ASTROS-1.5 (+115) aren’t a bad game to make money if you’re a little less conservative.

Houston has outscored the opposition 19-4 in Brown’s last four starts since June 8, winning each game by at least 3 runs. So if you like the Astros to win, you’d better like them to get the job done on the run line.

More less

MORE THAN 8.5 (-110) is worth a look in this vacation game in the Great White North.

The total has been high in 4 of the Blue Jays’ last 5 Canada Day appearances. They also went on a 7-0 run to the Over, with the total reaching a high of 10-2-1 in the previous 13 matches.

While all of the above sounds great, be aware that the Under are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this series, so there is still some risk.

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